Mark Bradley from the AJC wrote a column yesterday in which he sums up most of our bowl predictions, and he seems to relish in the fact that most are predicting Georgia landing in a lower-tier SEC bowl.
So here are the predictions by "experts" so far:
ESPN's Bruce Feldman: Independence Bowl vs. Missouri
ESPN's Mark Schlabach: Music City Bowl vs. Florida State
CBSSports.com: Liberty Bowl vs. Houston
Athens Banner Herald: Music City Bowl
My question is this: Have any of these guys even looked at the bowl selection process or other SEC teams' current records?
Looks like most of the "experts" are picking Auburn to beat Georgia, and that's how they explain our lower-tier bowl. But I'm not sure if they are even looking at things that closely. David Ching at the Athens Banner Herald says he's predicting Georgia will win against Auburn and Kentucky (which would put us at 5-3 in the SEC), but then he has South Carolina losing to Florida, ending up 4-4 in the SEC and yet being in the Chick-Fil-A, while he has Georgia in the Music City. THAT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE. He also has Ole Miss being in a better bowl than us, yet having a 3-5 SEC record. DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.
Here is the list of SEC bowls this year, and who they will probably take:
BCS National Championship: SEC #1
Sugar Bowl: SEC #2
Capital One Bowl: SEC #3
Cotton Bowl: SEC #4
Outback Bowl: SEC #5
Chick-Fil-A: SEC #6
Music City: SEC #7
Liberty: SEC #8
Independence: SEC #9
PapaJohn's: SEC #10
Of course it's still possible that no SEC teams will make it to the National Championship this season, so that would just knock each # up one spot (Sugar is SEC #1, Capital One is SEC #2, and so on.)
Now let's look at the current position of Georgia in the SEC (from ESPN.com).
SEC Standings
Right now with our SEC win/loss record (and our overall record), we'd likely be picked as the #6 SEC team (so if bowls were played next week, we'd be in the Chick-Fil-A).
If we beat Kentucky and Auburn, the absolute worst we could end up would be #7 in the SEC, which would probably land us in the Music City bowl. Even if we lost one of those two games, we'd still probably (at worst) end up at #8 (Liberty).
Why?
Because the rest of the SEC still has games to play to, and it's likely that some teams are going to knock each other out.
We know for a fact right now that we will end up in the SEC behind Florida and Alabama, because the worst they could do right now is end up 6-2 or 5-2 in the SEC. We'll very likely be behind LSU, unless they somehow manage to lose their last 3 SEC games and end up 4-4 in conference.
But here's the fun part.
South Carolina is currently 3-3 in conference (like us), but they still have to play @Arkansas and Florida. We all probably expect them to lose at least to UF, but I can see them losing to the Hogs as well.
We play Auburn (and then they have to play Alabama), so if we can beat them, we'll certainly be ahead of them in the SEC.
Tennessee is 2-3 in conference with remaining games @Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and @Kentucky. I can see them losing at least one of those and ending up at best 4-4. Even if they win all three of those, they'll be 5-3 in conference (perhaps like us), and a bowl might choose us ahead of them for money purposes (especially the Chick-Fil-A) or even the Florida bowls.
And finally, Mississippi. They're 2-3 in the SEC with remaining games against Tennessee, LSU, and @Miss. State. Once again, I can see them losing at least one of those, maybe 2 (and possibly all 3).
Mississippi State doesn't seem a likely threat, as they still have to play Alabama, @Arkansas, and Ole Miss.
Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Arkansas have no shot at finishing above us if we win our last 2 SEC games.
CONCLUSION
If we beat Auburn and Kentucky (even if we lose to Tech in the finale), the worst we could do is end up as the #7 SEC team which would give us a spot in the Music City Bowl. But it's much more likely (and in fact, necessary) that other SEC teams will beat up on each other in the next few weeks. In fact, we have a very legitimate shot at ending up as the #4 or #5 SEC team this season, putting us in the Cotton or Outback.
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MY PREDICTIONS:
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ALABAMA
Will beat LSU, Miss. State, Chattanooga, and Auburn
Final Record: 12-0 (8-0 SEC) (#1 SEC)
Bowl: BCS National Championship Game
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FLORIDA
Will beat Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida International, and Florida State.
Final Record: 12-0 (8-0 SEC) (#2 SEC)
Bowl: Sugar Bowl
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LSU
Will lose to Alabama, but beat Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, and Arkansas.
Final Record: 10-2 (6-2 SEC) (#3 SEC)
Bowl: Capital One
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GEORGIA
Will beat Tennessee Tech, Auburn, Kentucky, lose to Georgia Tech
Final Record: 7-5 (5-3 SEC) (#4 SEC)
Bowl: Outback
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MISSISSIPPI
Will beat Northern Arizona, Tennessee, and Miss. State. Lose to LSU
Final Record: 8-4 (4-4 SEC) (#5 SEC)
Bowl: Cotton
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TENNESSEE
Will beat Memphis, Vanderbilt, Kentucky. Will lose to Mississippi.
Final Record: 7-5 (4-4 SEC) (#6 SEC)
Bowl: Chick-Fil-A
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ARKANSAS
Will beat South Carolina, Troy, Miss. State, and lose to LSU.
Final Record: 7-5 (3-5 SEC) #7 SEC
Bowl: Music City
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AUBURN
Will beat Furman, lose to Georgia and Alabama
Final Record: 7-5 (3-5 SEC) (#8 SEC)
Bowl: Liberty
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SOUTH CAROLINA
Lose to Arkansas and Florida, beat Clemson
Final Record: 7-5 (3-5 SEC) (#9 SEC)
Bowl: Independence
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KENTUCKY
Will beat Eastern Kentucky and Vanderbilt, will lose to Georgia and Tenessee
Final Record: 6-6 (2-6 SEC) (#10 SEC)
Bowl: PapaJohn's Bowl
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MISSISSIPPI STATE
Will lose to Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi.
Final Record: 4-8 (2-6 SEC) (#11 SEC)
Bowl: Not eligible
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VANDERBILT
Will lose to Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee
Final Record: 2-10 (0-8 SEC) (#12 SEC)
Bowl: Not eligible
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Even though this is my prediction, I think we'll most likely end up in the Outback, Cotton, or Chick-Fil-A (if I'm wrong on something in there). A Music City bowl seems possible as well, but I think the Liberty and Independence predictions are pretty stupid. The funny thing is, I'm not even being that biased toward Georgia here. I even predicted the loss to Tech.
So tell me, where are these "experts" getting their predictions? I'm guessing they're pulling them out of a place where the sun doesn't shine very much.
I could be wrong and we could lose to Auburn or Kentucky, or even both, in which case we wouldn't even be bowl eligible. But I think I'm a little more realistic than most with my predictions. I'll admit, an Auburn loss seems possible, but for now and from what I've seen (and with Georgia playing Auburn in Athens at night), I think we can win our last 2 SEC games.
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