Snow on UGA Campus (2010: Part 2)

Sanford Stadium and UGA Campus Snow Photos (2010 Edition, Part 1)

Almost exactly a year later from this, there's snow again covering Sanford Stadium and the UGA campus.

Updates on Spring Football, and preseason polls

First, I'm currently working on this year's version of the "unbiased preseason poll" for college football. The formula was simple, but it turned out to be relatively helpful in 2009 for determining which teams where over or under rated. Comparing it to the actual preseason AP and USA Today polls, it accurately predicted that:

-Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, LSU, California, North Carolina, Notre Dame, and Kansas were overrated teams.

-Oregon, TCU, Iowa, Texas Tech, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati were underrated.

This was actually a huge success, because Iowa and TCU, teams that were ranked 17 and 22 in the AP preseason poll, actually ended up in the top 10 (both in BCS games). Texas Tech, Pitt, and Cincinnati were all unranked in the preseason AP and Coaches' polls, but all ended up in the top 25, with Cincinnati finishing as the #8 team. How did the voters miss by so much on these teams? The "unbiased poll" actually recognized them when the voters didn't.

But like I said before, the formula I used was very simple, based only on last season's final rankings and the returning starters for each team. So far with the same formula, this year's unbiased poll places Boise State at #1, Florida still at #3, and Alabama at #6. It isn't looking nearly as credible as last season's, but who knows, we could be surprised and see the BSU Broncos holding a crystal football at the end of next season (I wouldn't count on it). Still, I'm working on revamping the poll formula, adding different weighted values to the importance of players lost from each team, and maybe even finding a way to consider strength of schedule. If anyone has any suggestions, let me know. But I do still plan on finishing the poll with last year's formula, no matter how wacky it ends up.

In other news, spring football begins soon, and it clearly can't come soon enough.

Georgia's spring practice is set to begin on March 4, and the G-Day game is scheduled for April 10 (yes, the same weekend as the Masters).

I've seen people questioning whether the game would be on ESPN again this year, and although I doubt it seriously, I'm not sure. It seems possible that with ESPN's deal with the SEC, more and more SEC spring games could be featured on ESPN networks (if not on ESPN or ESPN2, maybe the SEC Network).

It seems that ESPN has already scheduled to televise LSU's spring game, and North Carolina's, but I'm having trouble finding any official sources that can confirm that. But the link above is a very trustworthy (and a must-have) source for any college football fan, especially during the season.

Speaking of star ratings... remember former greats?

Star ratings are a funny thing. I decided to look back at some former players from Georgia and elsewhere to see what their star ratings were when they were just high school seniors being recruited. Some of them may be surprising.

First, the not surprising ones:

-Matthew Stafford was a 5 star, and the #2 QB in his class.

-AJ Green was a 5 star, and the #2 WR in his class.

-Tim Tebow was a 5 star, and the #3 QB in his class.

-Percy Harvin was a 5 star, and the #2 WR in his class.

-Eric Berry was a 5 star, and the #1 CB in his class.

So clearly, sometimes the star ratings and Scout/Rivals/ESPN player rankings get it right. But they also often miss the mark on some players, and sometimes players grow into stars with coaching and maturity.

-Knowshon Moreno was a 4 star, and the #9 RB in his class.

-Rennie Curran was a 4 star.

-Mohamed Massaquoi was a 4 star.

-Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins were both 4 stars.

From other schools:

-Mark Ingram from Alabama (Heisman winner) was only a 3 star, and the #58 RB in his class.

-Dexter McCluster from Ole Miss was only a 3 star, and get this: the #100 RB in his class.

-Ndamukong Suh from Nebraska was a 4 star.

-Sam Bradford from Oklahoma was a 4 star, and the #17 QB in his class.

-Colt McCoy from Texas was also a 4 star, and the #14 QB in his class.

-Jordan Shipley from Texas was a 4 star and the #18 WR in his class. Nice picture by the way.

Just think, some of these guys when being recruited weren't exciting to their team's fans.

(Of course, it can go the other way too, and there are plenty of former 5 star recruits that never show up strong on the field. I'm not going to list them. But still, it's much more likely that a 3 or 4 star out there is going to make a huge impact than a 5 star that makes none.)

Grading Georgia's 2010 Recruiting Class

Many will point to Georgia's last-minute losses in their 2010 recruiting class and see this signing day as a failure. Others will look at the overall star ranking average of this class and compare it to others (which is actually good). But maybe it would be best to look at Georgia's personnel needs of the present and near-future to determine whether our coaches filled the spots that were really important. So here is a look at each position and the grade assigned to it, depending on depth and talent (based on recruiting star ratings from Scout.com). (note: If a position has top-rated players on the roster, plus multiple backups that are also of high-rating, then it will likely be rated as an A, whether recruited this class or not).

(Another note: I know that star ratings don't always mean much. But the point of listing them here is to show that there are plenty of players already on Georgia's roster who were highly rated when they were recruited. So for the sake of analysis and comparison, star-ratings will be measured as "talent.")

Grading scale:

A: Plenty of talent and/or depth

B: Good talent and/or depth, but could use improvement

C: Lacking talent and/or depth adequate for Georgia

F: Terrible and catastrophic failure of a position for a Div. 1 football team

Offense

Quarterback (A+)

UGA was looking pretty good with 2 redshirt freshmen (Murray and Mettenberger), a 5 star and 4 star according to Scout.com. Then of course there's Logan Gray (Jr.), another 4 star recruit. Three high-rated QBs on scholarship is pretty good, but it certainly didn't hurt to get Hutson Mason, a 3 star out of Lassiter High School.

Running Back (A+)

Once again, the running back position is loaded at Georgia. Caleb King (5 star) and Washaun Ealey (4 star) are now the relied-upon duo for UGA, and they're backed up by Carlton Thomas (4 star) and Dontavious Jackson (4 star), as well as Kalvin Daniels (1 star). But UGA went ahead and grabbed another, Ken Malcome, a 4 star and the #9 RB on ESPN. At fullback, Georgia has 3 experienced returners, Shaun Chapas (3 star), Fred Munzenmaier (3 star), and Justin Fields (1 star).

Wide Receiver (A)

AJ Green (5 star), Tavarres King (4 star), Rantavious Wooten (4 star), Israel Troupe (4 star), Marlon Brown (4 star), and Kris Durham (3 star). Despite losing 5 star Da'Rick Rogers at WR this time around, Georgia did get Michael Bennet (3 star) and Derek Owens (3 star), who could play at CB or WR. The receiver position was already pretty stacked at UGA, and a couple more were added for good measure. With the likely departure of AJ Green after 2010, Georgia should work hard to get a couple more top WR recruits in the 2011 class, but for now, this group looks perfectly fine. Signing another 5 star would have been tremendous, but losing one in recruiting isn't going to bring down this already outstanding group of receivers.

Tight End (A)

Orson Charles (5 star), Aron White (4 star), Bruce Figgins (3 star), Arthur Lynch (4 star). Yet another loaded position. Georgia didn't sign anyone for this position, and they didn't have to.

Offensive Line (A-)

Returning starters are Clint Boling (3 star), Cordy Glenn (4 star), Ben Jones (3 star), Chris Davis (3 star), and Josh Davis (3 star). They're backed up by Justin Anderson (4 star), AJ Harmon (4 star), Dallas Lee (3 star), plus the return of Trinton Sturdivant (4 star). The line looked pretty good before, but can definitely use more depth. Georgia helped to fix that problem by recruiting OG Kolton Houston (4 star and #5 OG on ESPN), OT Brent Benedict (4 star and #11 OT on ESPN), and OT Kenarious Gates (2 star). The line looks solid now. I considered giving this position a B, considering we lack any 5 stars along the O-line, but after looking at Scout's top recruits this year, I noticed that there were only 5 offensive linemen proclaimed "5 stars" in the country. I think UGA loading up on 4 stars and 3 stars should be sufficient.

Defense

Defensive Line (A)

At defensive tackle, we have returning Deangelo Tyson (5 star), Abry Jones (4 star), Derrick Lott (3 star), Ricardo Crawford (3 star), Kwame Geathers (4 star), and Brandon Wood (5 star). Considering the move to a 3-4 defense and now having one DT (NT), we have a few guys for this role, but the trick will be finding the optimum guy for the position. Georgia went ahead and signed 2 DT's from high schools, Garrison Smith (4 star) and Michael Thornton (4 star). That's a good group to choose from for the nosetackle spot.

At defensive end, UGA returns Demarcus Dobbs (4 star), Kiante Tripp (4 star), Justin Houston (3 star), Montez Robinson (4 star), Jeremy Longo (3 star), as well as a few others. But UGA went ahead and got 3 more DE's, because you can never have too many big guys to move around on the D-line. Brandon Burrows (4 star), Jalen Fields (3 star) and Dexter Morant (3 star) were all signed with Georgia. The defensive line is stacked with plenty of depth and a lot of highly rated players.

Linebacker (B)

Georgia returns 10 linebackers, including Akeem Dent (4 star), Darryl Gamble (4 star), Marcus Dowtin (4 star), and Chase Vasser (4 star). UGA got 3 LB's to sign with this class, T.J Stripling (4 star who can play DE or LB), Demetre Baker (4 star), and Alexander Ogletree (2 star). They lost 3 star OLB Deon Rogers to Louisville, but the position is ripe with 4 and 3 stars and a total of 13 LB's. Still, it would have been good to sign a couple more highly rated LB's to fill in the depth at this position to help replace the huge loss of Rennie Curran.

Cornerback (A-)

At CB, UGA has Brandon Boykin (4 star), Vance Cuff (4 star), Branden Smith (5 star), Jordan Love (4 star), Sanders Commings (3 star). This position has pretty good depth and good talent, but could use a little more work. Georgia signed Derek Owens (3 star), and athlete that can play CB or WR, but losing the 4 star CB recruit Nickell Robey to USC weakened this spot in recruiting.

Safety (A)

Georgia has Bacarri Rambo (3 star), Makiri Pugh (3 star), and Quintin Banks (3 star). This position was very thin with the departure of Reshad Jones and Bryan Evans, but UGA fixed that by recruiting 3 safeties, Alec Ogletree (5 star and #4 S on ESPN), Marc Deas (3 star), and Jakar Hamilton (4 star). Although still not quite as loaded as it could be, UGA managed to get two big-time safeties in this class (Ogletree and Hamilton) to solidify the position.

So clearly, these ratings and grades are very subjective. I really couldn't make a great case for any position lacking sufficient talent or depth, despite our big recruiting losses recently. Georgia's big losses from last season were Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins at defensive tackle, Reshad Jones and Bryan Evans at safety, Rennie Curran at linebacker, and Prince Miller at cornerback. This recruiting class signed two more 4 stars to help at DT (along with a couple of 4 stars and 3 stars to thicken up the DE spot), a 5 star and a 4 star for safety, and a 3 star to help out at CB (a position with plenty of talent already). We got extra help at QB, RB, LB, WR, and along the offensive line.

If this was being graded by comparison to other top recruiting classes, the grades might look a little different. But instead, this looks at the overall talent and depth on the roster, and Georgia has plenty of it from past recruiting successes, along with new commits. Overall, I think the coaches addressed the weaknesses we had with this signing class and added extra depth and talent to every position (other than TE, which doesn't really need it yet).

Despite recruiting losses, Georgia loaded at WR in 2010

So we lost a highly touted WR recruit. Now who will catch the balls between the hedges?

1. AJ Green (Jr). Career stats: 109 receptions, 1,771 yards, 14 TD. Out of high school, he was a 5 star Rivals recruit and the #2 WR by ESPN.

2. Tavarres King (R. Soph). Career stats: 20 receptions, 443 yards, 1 TD. Out of high school, he was a 4 star Rivals recruit and the #22 WR by ESPN.

3. Rantavious Wooten (Soph). Career stats: 10 receptions, 197 yards, 2 TD. Out of high school, he was a 4 star Rivals recruit.

4. Israel Troupe (Jr.). Career stats: 8 receptions, 129 yards, 1 TD. Out of high school, he was a 4 star Rivals recruit and the #6 WR by ESPN.

5. Kris Durham (Sr.). Career stats: 32 receptions, 450 yards, 1 TD. Out of high school, he was a 3 star Rivals recruit.

6. Marlon Brown (Soph). Career stats: 2 receptions, 15 yards. Out of high school, he was a 4 star Rivals recruit and #3 WR by ESPN.

Then we have 2 potential WR's signed today.

Michael Bennet, a 3 star WR (and also 6'3").

Derek Owens, a 3 star athlete who can play cornerback or wide receiver.

And then we have our tight ends (all potentially threats as pass-catching TE's).

1. Orson Charles (Soph.). Career stats: 23 receptions, 374 yards, 3 TD. Out of high school, he was a 4 star Rivals recruit, and the #15 TE by ESPN.

2. Aron White (Jr.). Career stats: 16 receptions, 286 yards, 6 TD. Out of high school, he was a 4 star Rivals recruit and the #6 TE by ESPN.

3. Bruce Figgins (Jr). Career stats: 5 receptions, 56 yards, 1 TD. Out of high school, he was a 3 star Rivals recruit and the #27 TE by ESPN.

We've got all of that, not to mention any walk-ons at WR who are available (and maybe even former-QB and punt fair catcher Logan Gray). Sure, it would be great to add another 4 or 5 star WR to our roster, but I still think this is one of the best receiving groups we've had at Georgia in a long time.

LOST Season Premier tonight: Remember when Hurley wrote on this blog?

You don't remember? CLICK HERE to see it. (He wrote in the comments under the post.)

It was an honor for Jorge Garcia (actor who plays Hurley on LOST) to grace this blog with his textual presence. I still can't believe that happened.

By the way, here's a link to Jorge's blog.