Bad bowl projections or crazy season?

I'm back, thanks to an idea for a quick post. Look back at the preseason bowl predictions from ESPN's experts for 2009. Man, these guys were off (and I'm guessing most everyone was as well).

Only 4 teams that either guy predicted to be in a BCS bowl actually ended up there. Florida, Texas, Boise State, and Ohio State. That's 50%, so... not too bad? But look at who else was projected to be in BCS bowls. Oklahoma, Ole Miss, BYU, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, South Florida, Penn State, and USC. A couple of those picks weren't too bad (Penn State, Pitt), but others were wayyy off. Of course we can give people a break for predicting great things from Oklahoma. No one knew Bradford would get hurt so quickly, but still. Ole Miss and USC were particularly bad picks, and vastly overrated preseason, while everyone overlooked Oregon and Cincinnati.

They both had Oklahoma State in the Cotton, but vs. Alabama? Wow. Alabama actually overachieved this year. And probably the worst projection: Neither guy had a 2nd SEC team in the BCS bowls. Whaaa?

And a sad note: They both had Georgia in the Capital One. Could have happened without a crazy ending to the LSU game and a complete implosion at the end of the Kentucky game, so maybe not too bad of a prediction.

New Bowl Hopes

Ok, so finally everyone was agreeing that we had a chance to get to the Chick-Fil-A, or even Outback, and then we had to go and lose to Kentucky in bed-wetting fashion.

So what's the deal now?

People have completely lost it with Georgia now, and most are crying and expecting an Independence or even Papa John's bowl to end the season. I don't know if they're aware that this would mean UGA would have to finish 9th or 10th in the entire SEC, which honestly seems impossible at this point (thankfully).

Here's how things are shaping up. Georgia will very likely end up 3rd in the SEC East behind either Tennessee or Kentucky, depending on who wins their game. There is a possibility for Georgia to finish 2nd in the East, but only if we beat Tech and Tennessee wins. 3 teams in the West will surely finish ahead of Georgia, and the rest are questionable.

So for certain, we know that we could at BEST finish 5th in the SEC (Outback Bowl). Seriously. It's possible still, but only with a Tech win and everything else going our way, and the bowl committees choosing us over others (very unlikely). Technically, if Arkansas beats LSU and Auburn beats Alabama, we would end up 8th in the SEC (Liberty Bowl).

If you think about it, a Music City or even Chick-Fil-A are still possibilities. It really all depends on what UGA does at Tech next Saturday, and what happens with a few other teams.

In summary, we WANT Tennessee to beat Kentucky, LSU to beat Arkansas, and Alabama to beat Auburn. We also want South Carolina to lose to Clemson, just to make sure they're knocked out. If everything goes our way, we have a shot at the Chick-Fil-A still. Don't expect it, but we can surely hope for it.

No need to change my bowl predictions

Because they're still the same. I predicted every SEC game remaining, each team's final record, and which bowl they'd end up in 2 weeks ago, and so far, everything has been spot on. Of course, no one knows exactly which bowls will choose which teams, but we have a pretty good idea. Nice to see most Georgia fans and blogs suddenly changing their predictions for us from Music City, Independence, and Liberty, to Chick-Fil-A and even Outback. Did I sense some doubt about UGA beating Auburn this weekend?

Most people are still confused about bowls though, and they forget that the bowl selection for SEC-tie-ins is largely based on final SEC record and SEC ranking. If Georgia beats Kentucky, we'll be the 2nd ranked team in the SEC East, and at worst, the 5th ranked overall. That smells like Outback.

I still think my bowl predictions have been pretty good for the past 2 weeks with no change. I predicted Ole Miss beating Tennessee (even though it was very popular for most people to pick UT in that one), I picked Arkansas beating South Carolina, and of course I picked Georgia to beat Auburn. In fact, the only things I'm not positive about wouldn't really change Georgia's bowl position. For instance, I hope I'm wrong that we lose to Tech, but if we beat them, then the Outback is pretty much a lock. Also, I'm starting to think South Carolina will lose to Clemson, Ole Miss might beat LSU, and Tennessee could lose to Kentucky. But like I said, none of that would affect Georgia's position in my predictions. I stand by what I said before: Assuming Georgia at least beats Kentucky, we'll find ourselves in the Outback, with a chance of dropping to the Chick-Fil-A (which I wouldn't mind).

I don't know why everyone was so pessimistic before. They must have been scared of Auburn (and I'll admit, I was scared of them too when we were down 0-14). But look! The bowl picture looks a lot brighter now, doesn't it?

What bowl will Georgia land in?

No one knows for sure, but I can tell you that most of the "experts" don't seem to really know what they're talking about with their bowl predictions.

Mark Bradley from the AJC wrote a column yesterday in which he sums up most of our bowl predictions, and he seems to relish in the fact that most are predicting Georgia landing in a lower-tier SEC bowl.

So here are the predictions by "experts" so far:

ESPN's Bruce Feldman: Independence Bowl vs. Missouri

ESPN's Mark Schlabach: Music City Bowl vs. Florida State

CBSSports.com: Liberty Bowl vs. Houston

Athens Banner Herald: Music City Bowl

My question is this: Have any of these guys even looked at the bowl selection process or other SEC teams' current records?

Looks like most of the "experts" are picking Auburn to beat Georgia, and that's how they explain our lower-tier bowl. But I'm not sure if they are even looking at things that closely. David Ching at the Athens Banner Herald says he's predicting Georgia will win against Auburn and Kentucky (which would put us at 5-3 in the SEC), but then he has South Carolina losing to Florida, ending up 4-4 in the SEC and yet being in the Chick-Fil-A, while he has Georgia in the Music City. THAT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE. He also has Ole Miss being in a better bowl than us, yet having a 3-5 SEC record. DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.

Here is the list of SEC bowls this year, and who they will probably take:

BCS National Championship: SEC #1

Sugar Bowl: SEC #2

Capital One Bowl: SEC #3

Cotton Bowl: SEC #4

Outback Bowl: SEC #5

Chick-Fil-A: SEC #6

Music City: SEC #7

Liberty: SEC #8

Independence: SEC #9

PapaJohn's: SEC #10

Of course it's still possible that no SEC teams will make it to the National Championship this season, so that would just knock each # up one spot (Sugar is SEC #1, Capital One is SEC #2, and so on.)

Now let's look at the current position of Georgia in the SEC (from ESPN.com).

SEC Standings

EAST	CONF	OVERALL
* - Florida	6-0	8-0
* - South Carolina	3-3	6-3
Georgia	3-3	4-4
Tennessee	2-3	4-4
Kentucky	1-4	4-4
x - Vanderbilt	0-5	2-7
WEST	CONF	OVERALL
* - Alabama	5-0	8-0
* - LSU	4-1	7-1
* - Auburn	3-3	6-3
Mississippi	2-3	5-3
Mississippi State	2-3	4-5
Arkansas	1-4	4-4

Right now with our SEC win/loss record (and our overall record), we'd likely be picked as the #6 SEC team (so if bowls were played next week, we'd be in the Chick-Fil-A).

If we beat Kentucky and Auburn, the absolute worst we could end up would be #7 in the SEC, which would probably land us in the Music City bowl. Even if we lost one of those two games, we'd still probably (at worst) end up at #8 (Liberty).

Why?

Because the rest of the SEC still has games to play to, and it's likely that some teams are going to knock each other out.

We know for a fact right now that we will end up in the SEC behind Florida and Alabama, because the worst they could do right now is end up 6-2 or 5-2 in the SEC. We'll very likely be behind LSU, unless they somehow manage to lose their last 3 SEC games and end up 4-4 in conference.

But here's the fun part.

South Carolina is currently 3-3 in conference (like us), but they still have to play @Arkansas and Florida. We all probably expect them to lose at least to UF, but I can see them losing to the Hogs as well.

We play Auburn (and then they have to play Alabama), so if we can beat them, we'll certainly be ahead of them in the SEC.

Tennessee is 2-3 in conference with remaining games @Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and @Kentucky. I can see them losing at least one of those and ending up at best 4-4. Even if they win all three of those, they'll be 5-3 in conference (perhaps like us), and a bowl might choose us ahead of them for money purposes (especially the Chick-Fil-A) or even the Florida bowls.

And finally, Mississippi. They're 2-3 in the SEC with remaining games against Tennessee, LSU, and @Miss. State. Once again, I can see them losing at least one of those, maybe 2 (and possibly all 3).

Mississippi State doesn't seem a likely threat, as they still have to play Alabama, @Arkansas, and Ole Miss.

Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Arkansas have no shot at finishing above us if we win our last 2 SEC games.

CONCLUSION

If we beat Auburn and Kentucky (even if we lose to Tech in the finale), the worst we could do is end up as the #7 SEC team which would give us a spot in the Music City Bowl. But it's much more likely (and in fact, necessary) that other SEC teams will beat up on each other in the next few weeks. In fact, we have a very legitimate shot at ending up as the #4 or #5 SEC team this season, putting us in the Cotton or Outback.

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MY PREDICTIONS:

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ALABAMA

Will beat LSU, Miss. State, Chattanooga, and Auburn

Final Record: 12-0 (8-0 SEC) (#1 SEC)

Bowl: BCS National Championship Game

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FLORIDA

Will beat Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida International, and Florida State.

Final Record: 12-0 (8-0 SEC) (#2 SEC)

Bowl: Sugar Bowl

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LSU

Will lose to Alabama, but beat Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, and Arkansas.

Final Record: 10-2 (6-2 SEC) (#3 SEC)

Bowl: Capital One

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GEORGIA

Will beat Tennessee Tech, Auburn, Kentucky, lose to Georgia Tech

Final Record: 7-5 (5-3 SEC) (#4 SEC)

Bowl: Outback

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MISSISSIPPI

Will beat Northern Arizona, Tennessee, and Miss. State. Lose to LSU

Final Record: 8-4 (4-4 SEC) (#5 SEC)

Bowl: Cotton

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TENNESSEE

Will beat Memphis, Vanderbilt, Kentucky. Will lose to Mississippi.

Final Record: 7-5 (4-4 SEC) (#6 SEC)

Bowl: Chick-Fil-A

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ARKANSAS

Will beat South Carolina, Troy, Miss. State, and lose to LSU.

Final Record: 7-5 (3-5 SEC) #7 SEC

Bowl: Music City

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AUBURN

Will beat Furman, lose to Georgia and Alabama

Final Record: 7-5 (3-5 SEC) (#8 SEC)

Bowl: Liberty

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SOUTH CAROLINA

Lose to Arkansas and Florida, beat Clemson

Final Record: 7-5 (3-5 SEC) (#9 SEC)

Bowl: Independence

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KENTUCKY

Will beat Eastern Kentucky and Vanderbilt, will lose to Georgia and Tenessee

Final Record: 6-6 (2-6 SEC) (#10 SEC)

Bowl: PapaJohn's Bowl

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MISSISSIPPI STATE

Will lose to Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi.

Final Record: 4-8 (2-6 SEC) (#11 SEC)

Bowl: Not eligible

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VANDERBILT

Will lose to Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee

Final Record: 2-10 (0-8 SEC) (#12 SEC)

Bowl: Not eligible

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Even though this is my prediction, I think we'll most likely end up in the Outback, Cotton, or Chick-Fil-A (if I'm wrong on something in there). A Music City bowl seems possible as well, but I think the Liberty and Independence predictions are pretty stupid. The funny thing is, I'm not even being that biased toward Georgia here. I even predicted the loss to Tech.

So tell me, where are these "experts" getting their predictions? I'm guessing they're pulling them out of a place where the sun doesn't shine very much.

I could be wrong and we could lose to Auburn or Kentucky, or even both, in which case we wouldn't even be bowl eligible. But I think I'm a little more realistic than most with my predictions. I'll admit, an Auburn loss seems possible, but for now and from what I've seen (and with Georgia playing Auburn in Athens at night), I think we can win our last 2 SEC games.