The SEC Picture (with losses) and Spring Practice Video

First of all, I've had the pleasure of doing some videos for the award-winning David Hale's Bulldogs Blog, and up today is a video of yesterday's first spring practice. Check it out along with the vast quantities of great info and analysis that you're used to from his blog.

Second, I realized that it might be worth it to look at the whole SEC picture using the percentage statistics I've been posting about. So first, here's a look at the SEC East, ranked from who loses the least to who loses the most (based on losing starting quarterbacks and percentage of rushing yards/scoring, receiving yards/scoring, tackles, sacks and interceptions).

SEC East

1. South Carolina

2. Vanderbilt

3. Kentucky

4. Georgia

5. Tennessee

6. Florida

SEC West

1. Arkansas

2. Mississippi State

3. Auburn

4. Alabama

5. LSU

6. Ole Miss

Overall SEC

1. South Carolina

2. Vanderbilt

3. Kentucky

4. Arkansas

5. Georgia

6. Mississippi State

7. Tennessee

8. Auburn

9. Alabama

10. LSU

11. Florida

12. Ole Miss

Then, keep in mind that four SEC teams have never won their division in the conference: Kentucky, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. Imagining that there's a glass ceiling in the SEC for these four unfortunate teams leads us to form this list:

1. Arkansas

2. Georgia

3. Miss. State

4. Tennessee

5. Auburn

6. Alabama

7. LSU

8. Florida

Of course, this is only looking purely at what these teams are losing from 2009-2010, and differences in coaching and talent at each school will also play an enormous part in who finishes where. But judging by the numbers, Georgia looks to be in a great spot going into the 2010 season.

Percentage Losses: Pre-Spring Award Winners

So I finished compiling my statistics to use for the "2010 New and Vastly Improved Unbiased Preseason Poll" (name is subject to change), and while I may wait until later (post-spring perhaps) to get into the really interesting stuff, I figured I'll go ahead and give out some awards for teams that lose the least (and most) in certain categories. First, I'll start with the awards for teams that lose the least going into 2010.

Biggest Winner Awards

Rushing: This is a tie between Georgia, Nebraska, Air Force, Iowa and Boise State, all of which lose a shocking 0% of their rushing yards and rushing scoring. If returning players are vastly important to future success, these teams should have well-established rushing attacks in 2010.

Honorable Mention: Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Ohio State and Wisconsin. All lose less than 2% of rushing yards.

Receiving: Boise State -they lose 2% of yards, 5% of scoring.

Honorable Mention: Virginia Tech (4.7% yards)

SEC Winner: Vanderbilt (7.4% yards, 0% scoring)

Defense: Once again ladies and gentlemen, Boise State. The Broncos lose only 4% of tackles, 4% of sacks, and 12% of interceptions. Things are looking good for the smurf-turf horses.

Honorable Mention: Oregon, but the gap is big between them and Boise. Oregon loses 19.7% of tackles, 12.5% sacks and 14.3% interceptions.

Biggest Loser Awards

Passing: This award is given to the team that loses a quarterback who has started for most years, and who had the highest QB rating in 2009. The calculated value comes out to being a tie between Florida (Tim Tebow), Central Michigan (Dan LeFevour) and BYU (Max Hall).

Rushing: Oklahoma State -the Cowboys lose 74.8% of rushing yards and 90.9% of scoring.

SEC Loser: Mississippi State, followed by Tennessee and LSU. The Big Orange loses 68.4% of yards.

Receiving: Florida - the Gators lose 73% of receiving yards and 64% of scoring, largely thanks to the departure of WR Riley Cooper and TE Aaron Hernandez.

Honorable Mention: Clemson (69% yards, 65.2% scoring) and Georgia Tech (65% yards, 72.7% scoring).

Defense: Alabama - the 2009 National Champs lose a whopping 62% tackles, 64% sacks, and 62% interceptions.

More Percentage Stats: The SEC East in 2010

Production percentage losses in the SEC East for 2010 (listed from least losses to most):

1. South Carolina

Passing: Return QB

Rushing: 6.7% yards, 0% scoring

Receiving: 17% yards, 16.7% scoring

Tackles: 25.4%

Sacks: 46%

INT: 33.3%

2. Vanderbilt

Passing: Return QB

Rushing: 10.3% yards, 0% scoring

Receiving: 7.4% yards, 0% scoring

Tackles: 37.3%

Sacks: 52.5%

INT: 41.7%

3. Kentucky

Passing: Return QB

Rushing: 16.4% yards, 15.4% scoring

Receiving: 8.8% yards, 23% scoring

Tackles: 42.3%

Sacks: 36.6%

INT: 68.7%

4. Georgia

Passing: Lose 1-year starting QB

Rushing: 0%

Receiving: 9% of yards, 20% of scoring

Tackles: 47%

Sacks: 46%

INT: 40%

5. Tennessee

Passing: 95.2% yards, 96.4% scoring (losing 2-year starting QB)

Rushing: 65.8% yards, 68.4% scoring

Receiving: 21.8% yards, 14.3% scoring

Tackles: 43.3%

Sacks: 47.5%

INT: 50%

6. Florida

Passing: Lose 3-year starting QB (and Greatest of All Time)

Rushing: 33% of total yards, 46% of scoring

Receiving: 73% of yards, 64% of scoring

Tackles: 48%

Sacks: 68%

INT: 60%

My first thoughts after putting this data together:

1. It really is true that 2010 will be South Carolina's best chance to win the East.

2. Kentucky might actually be in position to finish second or third in the East.

3. Vandy returns a lot, but for them, that's a bad thing.

4. Georgia was hit pretty hard on defense, but overall, things don't look too bad.

5. Florida and Tennessee lost a TON. If Georgia is going to beat both of these teams in the same year, this might be the year to do it. Sure, new freshmen and recruits could be very good, but it's not easy to throw a bunch of new talent on the field and expect to win the division.

6. How crazy would it be if the SEC East standings end up looking like this list? On one hand, it would be very, very funny. On the other, it would be very, very sad.

What's Georgia Losing in 2010?

I'm working on all of the data/calculations for a new "unbiased preseason poll" formula using CFBstats.com, and I've found some interesting numbers along the way.

In the transition from the 2009 Georgia squad to 2010, with graduating seniors and early exits to the NFL, Georgia loses:

Passing: Starting QB (roughly 100% of passing totals)

Rushing: Lose 0%

Receiving: 9.5% of total receiving yards, 20.8% of receiving touchdowns (all from Michael Moore)

Tackles: 47%

Sacks: 46%

Interceptions: 40%

The good news is they retain 100% of rushing yards and scoring, since there were no seniors last year that ran the ball (unless you count Joe Cox's -28 yards on the season).

At first glance, those numbers seem pretty bad, especially on defense, but then you take a look at some of the competition.

For example, the Florida Gators:

Passing: Lose 3-year starting QB

Rushing: Lose 33% total yards, 46% of scoring (mostly Tebow)

Receiving: Lose 73% of yards, 64% of scoring

Tackles: 48%

Sacks: 68%

Interceptions: 60%

Or Alabama:

Passing: Lose 0%

Rushing: Lose 9.9% of yards, 6.4% of scoring (Roy Upchurch)

Receiving: 11% of yards, 17% scoring

Tackles: 62%

Sacks: 64%

Interceptions: 62%

I haven't finished running the numbers on every top 25 team yet, but I think Florida might be the hardest hit by total percentages of offensive/defensive production lost, while Alabama is seeing huge losses on defense.

Comparing Georgia and Auburn in the only way possible...

It's probably the least useful information we have to compare the performances of two football teams late in the season, but it also happens to be some of the only information we have. That is, comparing teams based on how they performed against the same opponents. Auburn and Georgia have played both played 3 specific teams: Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU. So let's take a look at how each performed against these similar opponents, just for fun. It's certainly no true indication of which team is better this year, or who will win between the Tigers and the Bulldogs this Saturday, but hey, it's fun to look at.

Let's start with Arkansas.

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Georgia at Arkansas (W 52-41)

OFFENSE

Total Yards: 530

Passing yards: 375

Rushing yards: 155 (ypc. 4.3)

DEFENSE

Total Yards against: 485

Passing: 408

Rushing: 77 (ypc. 3.2)

Auburn at Arkansas (L 23-44)

OFFENSE

Total Yards: 375

Passing: 133

Rushing: 242 (ypc. 6.9)

DEFENSE

Total yards against: 495

Passing: 274

Rushing: 221 (ypc. 4.9)

Georgia clearly had a much better performance against Arkansas, especially on offense. On defense, the numbers for each team were similar, except Georgia was ripped up mainly by Arkansas' passing attack, while the Razorbacks gashed Auburn in the air and on the ground evenly. This could be a sign that Georgia's run defense was actually more effective against the Hogs than Auburn's, forcing them to pass more and rely on Mallet's arm.

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Georgia at Tennessee (L 19-45)

OFFENSE

Total Yards: 241

Passing: 152

Rushing: 89 (ypc. 4.0)

DEFENSE

Total yards against: 472

Passing: 310

Rushing: 162 (ypc. 4.4)

Auburn at Tennessee (W 26-22)

OFFENSE

Total Yards: 459

Passing: 235

Rushing: 224 (ypc. 4.7)

DEFENSE

Total Yards against: 410

Passing: 259

Rushing: 151 (ypc. 5.2)

This time, the story is slightly different. Auburn performed much better at Tennessee on offense than Georgia. But despite a large difference in the number of points the Volunteers scored, both Auburn and Georgia gave up similar yardage in Knoxville. So now through two games we've observed, both Auburn and Georgia have had bad defenses, but up-and-down offenses.

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Georgia vs. LSU (L 13-20)

OFFENSE

Total Yards: 274

Passing: 229

Rushing: 45 (ypc. 1.9)

DEFENSE

Total yards against: 368

Passing: 212

Rushing: 156 (ypc. 3.5)

Auburn at LSU (L 10-31)

OFFENSE

Total Yards: 193

Passing: 81

Rushing: 112 (ypc. 2.7)

DEFENSE

Total yards against: 376

Passing: 254

Rushing: 122 (ypc. 3.8)

So here's the tiebreaker. Georgia only scored 3 more points than Auburn, but did have nearly 80 more total yards against LSU. Auburn's defense also gave up slightly more yardage, and a lot more points. But let's face it: both games were ugly performances by Georgia and Auburn. If it's any consolation, Georgia had a good chance to win the game with a minute left (and we all know about the bad call on AJ Green), while Auburn was down 24-0 in the third quarter. So I'd say Georgia's defense, despite the yards they gave up, played a much better game against LSU than the Auburn defense.

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Just for fun, I combined the states from all 3 of these games to see how each team has fared against the similar opponents.

Georgia

Total Yards: 1045

Passing: 756

Rushing: 289

Total Yards against: 1325

Passing: 930

Rushing: 395

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Auburn

Total Yards: 1027

Passing: 449

Rushing: 578

Total yards against: 1281

Passing: 787

Rushing: 494

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In conclusion, both offenses have looked pretty even overall, with Georgia having the better passing game while Auburn is better at running the ball. Defensively, Georgia has actually fared a little better than Auburn, but both defenses are weak against the pass and stronger against rushing attacks. Since Auburn's offense focuses more on running than passing, this is good for Georgia's pass-vulnerable D. Plus, Auburn, like Georgia, is weak against the pass, which has been Georgia's strength on offense.