2011 UGA compared to 2007 UGA at this point

Remember the UGA team that after playing 7 games (5-2) and struggling to beat Vandy in Nashville, went on to become one of the best teams in the country to end the season?


That was the 2007 Georgia Bulldogs, but could it also be the 2011 UGA team?


The past couple of years have made Georgia fans much more pessimistic about our team and program.  A 5-game win streak right now should be a big deal, but most of us instead say, "Well we've beaten no good teams" or "we have an easy schedule."  So let's take a look at 2007's UGA at this same point, one of the best teams of the past decade.


The 2007 team started the season with an overhyped Oklahoma State who was supposed to be great.  We won that game and thought we were great, but no one knew that OSU would end up going 7-6.  That win was probably about as good as our win at home this year against Mississippi State.  But perspective at the time made it seem much bigger.


Then the 2007 team then lost a horrible, boring game at home to South Carolina.  But South Carolina was horrible that year and went 6-6.  It was a bad loss, to a bad team.  The South Carolina team we should have beaten this year was much better, and even with losing Garcia and Lattimore they'll still probably end up at least 8-4.  It was a much worse loss in 2007.


Then the 2007 team destroyed Western Carolina 45-16, but not as impressively as we beat Coastal Carolina this year 59-0.


Once again, another huge game at Alabama.  Georgia won a thriller in overtime.  We were great again!  But guess what?  Alabama finished the season 7-6 and lost to Louisiana Monroe that year.  It wasn't as great of a win as it looked.


We then easily handled Mississippi (just like we did this year), followed by a horrible, blowout loss to Tennessee in Knoxville.  Tennessee was a good, but not great, team in 2007 that finished 10-4.


And then finally, in mid-October, we went to Nashville to play the lowly Commodes, and snuck out of the game on a last second field goal from Brandon Coutu to win 20-17.  We thought this year's game was bad, even though we were winning easily most of the game and almost let them come back.  In 2007, it was a struggle through the whole game.


So comparing the 2 seasons: Our 2 losses in 2007 were much worse than the ones in 2011.  We lost at home to a 6-6 South Carolina and in Knoxville to a good Tennessee.  In 2011, we lost to a top 5 Boise State team and a good (before injuries) South Carolina team.


Our wins so far in 2011 are pretty much comparable to 2007, except we've more easily handled opponents, despite playing too conservatively late in the game and letting teams come back.  In 2007, though, we still look at those wins as good ones, just because at the time they were played, our opponents were overhyped (see Oklahoma State and Alabama).


So going into the Florida game this year, our team actually has a BETTER resume than in 2007.  Could we get a repeat of that year, but this time with our East competition actually losing when they should?   

"Sometimes it happens like that," but UGA has promise

Russ sleeping at the 2011 G-Day Game. Photo: B. Spoon

"Georgia outplayed us. Give 'em credit.  They definitely outplayed us.  But we won the game.  Sometimes it happens like that."  Those were Steve Spurrier's words after South Carolina snuck out a win against Georgia in Athens Saturday.

It's hard to take, but it's true.  After an embarrassing week one loss versus Boise State where execution in plays was hindered even more by bad play calling and coaching, the Dawgs seemed to put everything together against the Gamecocks.

The offensive play calling was much better, including a varied mix of I-Formation and shotgun plays (wonder if Bobo caught wind of my 78% stat on the blog...) which worked to almost perfection.  UGA was mostly unstoppable on offense, other than a few key halts after good drives in the 1st half that led to field goals rather than touchdowns, and the turnovers, of course.

The defense was phenomenal for most of the game, other than on a handful of critical drives late in the 4th quarter.

And the head coach finally seemed to realize that this was an urgent game, and we had to do everything possible to win.  Sure, we still ran a draw play on some long 3rd downs, but we also went for a surprise onside kick (which was barely overturned thanks to our favorite zebra Penn Wagers).

The media (ESPN) tried to convince everyone that this game would define Richt's future, and that a loss could mean his immediate firing.  Any realistic UGA fan knew that was false.  We know that Richt will likely have until the end of the season, at which point the AD and others will discuss his future as head coach at Georgia. And can you blame them?  Would firing a beloved head coach who's presumably loved by the players in the middle of the season really be good for us?

But instead, a loss here actually brought more optimism from fans than even last week's loss.  Somehow 0-2 turned out to be better than 0-1, mainly because of the way it happened.  Georgia's coaches began to coach, the players began to play, and everything was clicking.  Our running game appears to have life, as Crowell looked to be the 2nd coming of Knowshon Moreno while bouncing off of defenders and finding extra yards.  Our receiving corps look like they could be even better than last year with AJ Green, if we can just find a way to get the playmakers the ball.  Malcolm Mitchell is a speedster, Michael Bennett is the new Kris Durham, and of course we still have Charles, White, King, Wooten, and Brown back there.  And the defense not only made stop after stop, but they also made big plays, like a big interception by Rambo.

The media and other teams' fans are still convinced that Richt is done.  Maybe he will be.  They're convinced that UGA is "average" again, as one Rivals writer put it.  Maybe they are.  But they didn't look average on Saturday.  They looked like a great team, finally with coaching to match it, that made mistakes at just the wrong times to barely lose.

And while some can still rant about being 0-2, remember that is still 0-2 against the #4 and #11 teams in the country.  Mark Richt can't afford many more losses, and he certainly can't afford any bad ones, but he's still got a chance to make something out of this season with this team.  It's always better to lose early than late, as many teams have learned before.

Losing is bad.  We've lost way too much in the past few years, and we shouldn't be complacent with it.  We shouldn't be happy about 0-2.  If we don't have the type of season that UGA fans expect, maybe we should make some changes.  But maybe Saturday's loss shouldn't be weighed as heavily as the others, such as the Boise loss.  Because sometimes you can do almost everything right and lose.  Sometimes, it happens like that.

UGA vs. USCe: What I want to see, and what I expect to see...

What I want to see...

1. No forced play calling on the offense.  If the no-huddle shotgun offense keeps producing 3 and outs, don't keep trying to force it.  Mix things up, try different approaches, and see what works.  If something works really well, keep doing it until the defense stops it.  No need to get tricky when you already have the upper hand.

What I expect: More of the same from Bobo's offense.  Mostly baffling calls, but I do expect there to be a few great calls scattered in there that calm people down a little (see Boykin's run last week).

2. Isaiah Crowell start at RB.  Yes, he's a freshman, but he looks like he has what we need as an explosive player that can produce on the field and get the fans excited.  Give him just a moment to adjust to the unusual gameday environment in Sanford Stadium, and then call plays that give him a high chance of success to start the game to get him comfortable.  Also, if the running game isn't producing at all, give Malcome or Harton a chance to see what they can do in a game.  You never know if a player can turn it on in the heat of a game as opposed to practice.

What I expect: Samuel will start at RB, because that is the Mark Richt way.  Once again it will be a split of carries, probably Crowell with about 60%, Samuel with 30%, and Carlton Thomas with 10%.  I don't expect to see Malcome or Harton at all, especially if rumors of Malcome's disappointed Twitter comments are true.

3. Target Malcolm Mitchell.  The guy looked good, really good, toward the end of the Boise game.  His speed on his touchdown looked like it rivaled Branden Smith.  Get this guy the ball.  He deserves more targets after a great game performance.  Make the tight ends central to our passing game, and that includes Orson Charles and Aron White.  Also try to get Marlon Brown more passes, and Wooten too for that matter (both of whom also made good plays against Boise).

What I expect: I think we will target Mitchell, but not nearly as much as we should.  We used to have a problem with getting the ball to AJ Green, the best receiver in the country, so I don't expect us to get the ball to a freshman with supreme talent either.  We'll likely go to Tavarres King a lot more again, due to his experience and spot as #1 on the depth chart, and he'll be our primary receiver still on a lot of plays.  Hopefully he can improve his performance from last week.  Orson Charles will remain our #2 targeted receiver, which is good.

4. An aggressive defensive scheme that puts pressure on the QB and focuses on closer coverage of receivers.  In the opening drives of the Boise game, we had some tight man coverage on Boise, and our talent clearly could keep up and defend theirs.  Later in the game, Boise began to find wide open receivers all over the field with no defenders within 10 yards of them.  A soft zone defense leaves those dink and dunk short passes open that Kellen Moore thrived on, and Stepehen Garcia will do similar short passes all the way down the field if we leave them open.

What I expect: We'll do a better job of getting pressure on the QB, but unfortunately, we'll allow Garcia to dump short passes frequently to open receivers.  Hopefully we can rattle him enough to make him give up and look forward to the bar later that night.

5. Don't be afraid to be aggressive, but be smart about it when you do.  Mark Richt always refuses to go for a score at the end of the half when we have the ball.  We frequently have 1+ minutes on the clock and 2 or 3 timeouts, but we will run a screen pass or running play and let the clock run.  This game is too important to leave chances on the field.  We need to be in panic mode here, and we can't afford to just be calm and expect to come back and win.

What I expect: Even though this game is HUGE and could define the season (and potentially Richt's career), I still don't really expect us to change in a lot of common Richt ways.  If we didn't do it last week, I don't expect it that much this week.  If we didn't change ourselves to panic mode after going 6-7 and losing to UCF in a bowl game, I don't think losing to #5 Boise State will do it either.  Hopefully we'll have enough talent and just enough coaching to get a win regardless.

What about blocking? Screenshots show importance of I-Formation

I hate to beat a dead horse, but I saved some screenshots from the Boise game that might better illustrate why the I-formation was successful, and bring more confusion to why we abandoned it.

Some have mentioned that our overkill use of the shotgun was likely due to how poorly our offensive line was playing, and that it was in our best interest to give Murray space behind the line of scrimmage to have any adequate time to get a pass off.  In some cases, this is true, because the shotgun should give the QB a better view of rushing defenders and an ability to avoid being sacked.

But the I-Formation is important to UGA because of another factor: protection in numbers.  At the start of the revealing drive I referenced in my last post, the ESPN commentator made mention of I-formation being Georgia's "maximum protection" because it allowed for 7 blockers to guard the QB (5 linemen, 1 tight end, and 1 fullback or running back).  If you feel comfortable enough, the TE can become a receiver, and you still have 6 man protection.  But the I-Formation also appears to be more successful for UGA in pass blocking even with numbers aren't the advantage.

Here is the I-Formation in the first play of that drive:

Just for a better view, here's another shot of I-formation from behind:

Here is the same play after the snap.  Notice Murray has plenty room in his pocket and time to throw as the defense is sending five pass rushers against five blockers (we send the TE on a route).  He probably could have stood there for another second or two if he wanted.

As Georgia made their way down the field, the commentator continued to praise the decision of the offensive coordinator to switch to the I-formation, because it was allowing Murray much more protection and time to pass, while he was running for his life in the shotgun.  I also noticed that on the one play of that drive that we decided to run out of the I-Formation, Richard Samuel actually found a large hole to run through in the line (but unfortunately it looks like he ran into one of our blockers, just shy of the vast field of freedom ahead of him).

But just as soon as the commentators praised the change, we decided it was time to return to the shotgun (I presume just because it has such a cool sounding name).

Here on a crucial 3rd down, we go with 5 OL, no TE, and a freshman RB to pass block.  We have a four receiver set and no fullback for extra help in the backfield.  It doesn't end well.

Now the defense sends five pass rushers against a weaker UGA offensive protection, despite Georgia having 6 pass blockers.  The edge rushers get around that smaller line in a hurry, and the middle of the pocket collapses along with the ends.  Murray gets sacked here, and we miss a long field goal in a crucial moment.

It could be argued that we might as well go shotgun on that 3rd down, because everyone knew we would pass the ball.  That's true, but the bigger problem was the 2 shotgun plays before that, both of which were unsuccessful, right after we made it quickly down the field in I-Formation.  And pass blocking in the shotgun broke down much faster, even when having a numbers advantage, than it did in the I-Formation.

Also, that particular play above wasn't pretty.  Other than going back to shotgun, a formation in which we saw our offensive line fall apart and the pocket frequently collapse, Mike Bobo also apparently decided we would have plenty of time for Murray to pump fake a short pass and then try to hit the end zone 30 yards downfield.  The short pass might have been successful (or would at least give a better shot at a field goal), but instead we got a sack and no points.  Then again, we've complained about not being aggressive enough on offense before... right?

Boise Game Analysis: 78% of plays were shotgun formation

That's right.  I just wasted about 20 minutes fast forwarding through each play to figure that out.  78% of all offensive plays in Saturday's game were out of the shotgun formation.  Does that sound like UGA football to you?

Honestly, the stat by itself doesn't really matter that much.  Sure, Georgia is traditionally a power-I team that runs the ball with a lead fullback and then passes from under center, usually with a play-action fake.  But it isn't necessarily bad to try new things more often... as long as they work.  The problem isn't that 78% of plays were out of shotgun; the problem is that when good old fashion play-action passes and under center plays actually worked, we abandoned them and returned to the flashy deep snap.  The problem is that our offensive play calling has recently had a tendency to stick to things that don't work, and abandon things that have success.

Here are some more quick stats I compiled:

Total Plays in Game: 60
Total Plays Under Center: 13
Plays Under Center in 1st Half: 6/30
Plays Under Center in 2nd Half: 7/30

PASSING

Passing out of shotgun: 13 of 23 for 182 yards, 2 TD 1 INT, 14 yards per pass
Passing under center: 3 of 6 for 54 yards, 0 TD 0 INT, 18 yards per pass

Sacks: 6 of 6 sacks on Murray were in shotgun formation

The funny thing here is I (un)fondly remember the Arkansas game from last season, a loss which I blamed mostly on atrocious offensive play calling for the first 3 quarters.  I argued that we repeatedly attempted play-action passes without mixing things up, and it was obvious to the defense what we were doing.  I called for more shotgun plays to give Murray better sight of rushing defenders and the play as it develops, and when we began to pass from the shotgun in the 4th quarter, the offense suddenly began to improve.

This time, it was exactly the opposite.  We came out determined to play some newfangled hurry-up shotgun offense.  Goodbye to the old Georgia power-running and play-action days, we're here to trick you with speed and finesse.  Unfortunately, it didn't work too well from the start, and the offense struggled severely from penalties, jitters, and plain old lack of execution.

THE REVEALING DRIVE

The most revealing drive of the game was the first of the 2nd half.  Georgia decided to do something different.

Georgia at 11:01		BSU	UGA
1st and 10 at UGA 15	Aaron Murray pass complete to Orson Charles for 12 yards to the Geo 27 for a 1ST down.   (I-FORM PLAY ACTION)	21	7
1st and 10 at UGA 27	Aaron Murray pass complete to Orson Charles for 28 yards to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST down.   (I-FORM PLAY ACTION)
1st and 10 at BSU 45	Richard Samuel rush for 3 yards to the BoiSt 42.   (I-FORMATION)
2nd and 7 at BSU 42	Aaron Murray pass complete to Aron White for 14 yards to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST down.   (I-FORM PLAY ACTION)
1st and 10 at BSU 28	GEORGIA penalty 5 yard False Start accepted.
1st and 15 at BSU 33	Isaiah Crowell rush for 3 yards to the BoiSt 30.    (SHOTGUN)
2nd and 12 at BSU 30	Aaron Murray pass incomplete.    (SHOTGUN)
3rd and 12 at BSU 30	Aaron Murray sacked by Jamar Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 36.     (SHOTGUN)
4th and 18 at BSU 36	Blair Walsh 54 yard field goal MISSED.
DRIVE TOTALS: GEORGIA drive: 7 plays 49 yards, 03:40 GEORGIA FGA

Notice the formations listed to the right of each play in parentheses.  So for four plays in a row, Georgia played under center in I-formation, just like the good old days, and quickly moved down the field.  The ESPN commentators even happened to come on the screen with a graphic showing how Aaron Murray's numbers last year were significantly better when passing from the I-formation rather than shotgun.  The offense quickly gained 54 yards on 3 play action passes (with one run mixed in to keep the defense honest).  This was a sudden, incredible momentum for the UGA offense which had been struggling all night.  But then, it's as if Mike Bobo suddenly changed his mind, and the offense returned to shotgun formation.  THREE plays in a row of shotgun followed, stalling the offense completely, and then a missed field goal attempt to end the drive.

It doesn't take a genius or a blogger with too much time on their hands to watch that game and see what was working offensively.  That same non-genius could easily determine that we didn't try nearly enough of what was working, and we repeatedly tried to force what wasn't working.  Why?  Because that's the tale of Georgia's offensive play calling in recent years.

Also of note, although the other three under center passes were incomplete, one of them should have been a 15 yard gain and was a perfect pass to a wide open #12 (names will not be named) who dropped the ball.

Finally, all 6 sacks on Murray happened during plays from the shotgun.  Re-watch those I-formation play-action plays and see how much more time Murray had to find his receiver and make a good pass.  It makes it all the more sad that we continued to ignore what was successful and tried to force the shotgun to work.

RUSHING OUT OF I-FORM

There's a slightly interesting difference in the rushing stats as well, as you can see below in Isaiah Crowell's rushing numbers:

Rushes from I-formation: 4 for 19 yards, 4.75 yards per carry
Rushes from shotgun: 11 for 41 yards, 3.72 yards per carry

So not only the passing game benefited greatly from the change of formation.

CONCLUSION


I really could rant a lot more about the game, but pretty much everything worth saying has been said by countless reporters, message board posters, and bloggers.  I hadn't seen a statistical analysis of the offensive problems yet, though, so I figured I could make a contribution.  Once again, I hold the opinion that offensive play calling was a HUGE detriment to our game plan, and greatly contributed to our loss.  If UGA's offense was allowed to run plays that set them up to succeed, I think we could have won that game.  If these mind-boggling play calls continue, I'm afraid Georgia will struggle more and more.  Not every game can be won based on talent alone.

Post-Game Analysis: Coming up Soon

I haven't been posting much for a while here, but I think it's about time for me to write a long-winded analysis of the game like I have in the past.  So it's coming.  You've been warned.

As for a quick note on my current feelings toward the state of the UGA program:

I try to step back and look at things realistically.  No end of the world doom and gloom, but no "Disney Dawg" sparkling either (I've never liked the "Disney Dawg" term much, but you have to admit it's catchy).  On the up side, I saw some good things (very few, but some) in last night's game.  I know that we only lost one game, it was to a top 5 team, and it doesn't affect our SEC chances at all.  Technically, we still have the whole season ahead of us, 11 games left to play, and an SEC title we're still fully in the race for.  On the downside, well... there is a long and obvious list of grievances that I will go more into detail on later.  We have many of the same problems we've had for years, and we seemingly refuse to ever try to change them.  This is stubborn and stupid, and if we keep that up, we're looking at another long season.  I'll still hold out hope that we can turn things around, but if a 6-7 year with a loss to UCF in a lower-tier bowl game with an entire off-season to prepare didn't bring change, I'm not too hopeful about seeing that change happen in the next week.

ESPN Predicts UGA in Capital One Bowl; Also, video of new uniforms from Georgiadogs.com

It's nice to be getting some love from the media (even if we don't yet deserve it).

First, today it was announced that Georgia is ranked #19 in the AP Poll, a few spots higher than in the Coaches'.  I feel strange about a 6-7 team being ranked in the teens, but I'm not complaining.  The higher the better for making it to a better bowl at the end of the year.

Then, ESPN's Mark Schlabach and Brad Edwards are both predicting UGA to play in the Capital One Bowl this season, versus either Ohio State or Nebraska, respectively.  I can't say I would complain about either one of those scenarios.

As for our new uniforms that were released today, I will say this: I'm not a huge fan of how they look, mainly just because the matching jerseys and pants looks a little bit Arena Football League-ish for my tastes.  However, I think it would be a pity if all of our complaining fans made the team less excited about wearing them for the big opener.  Plus, I'm really glad they decided to release these images two weeks before the game so we can get used to them, unlike the fiasco that happened at the Cocktail Party in 2009.

By the way, the uniforms look a lot better in this video from the UGA athletics website.  I'm thinking people will really warm up to them when they're being worn by the real Dawgs as they run out of the tunnel onto the field.

G-Day Trend: Today's Game a Bad Omen?

First of all, I think G-Day 2011 was a success in all the right ways.  We got to see the defense do well in the 1st half, and the offense turn it on in the 2nd.

Aaron Murray looked excellent, going 12 of 17 for 122 yards and a TD, while the backups Mason and Lemay (and even walk-on Parker Welch) looked pretty solid themselves.  Although Ealey and incoming hopeful star Isaiah Crowell weren't playing, Caleb King looked good with 30 yards on 5 carries and Ken Malcome had similar numbers (7 for 39) and a TD.  The receivers didn't look spectacular, but they looked like a solid group that should be able to get things done with Murray throwing it to them.  Orson Charles and Tavarres King, while not of AJ Green caliber (but who is?), are still capable of being SEC stars themselves.  And of course Branden Smith was the star of the offense (is that right?) while catching and running the ball.  The defense had plenty of standouts from Alec Ogletree (7 tackles), Reuben Faloughi (3 sacks, 3 TFL), Chase Vasser (7 tackles), and walk-on Connor Norman, who had 5 tackles and a very nice interception.

Now that that's all out of the way, WHAT ABOUT THE OMEN?

Last year I noticed a trend from recent G-Day games that showed how higher scoring spring games generally lead to better seasons.  Based on the point scoring, last year's G-Day seemed to predict between a 9 and 10 win record for the Dawgs.  But there was one problem: in the previous five G-Days, the Red team always won, but in 2010, the Black team won.  I wondered if that could lead to some bizarro Bulldog season with catastrophic consequences.  Unfortunately, it did.

Below is a chart of each G-Day, first listing the points scored by the winning team, then the total points in the game, and the following season's record.

2011: 18 points (29 total) ????????? (Black team wins)
2010: 17 points (24 total) 6-7 record (Black team wins)

2009: 13 points (16 total), 8-5 record

2006: 14 points (24 total), 9-4 record

2008: 17 points (20 total), 10-3 record

2005: 21 points (33 total), 10-3 record (winning SEC)

2007: 34 points (55 total), 11-2 record

Last season was filled with catastrophe.  First, there were plenty of off-season arrests through the spring and summer, then a crazy NCAA investigation led to the Dawgs losing AJ Green for the first four games.  Very unfortunate fumbles and other strange happenings (along with just plain bad coaching or play) ended up in a losing season. 

So while a few more points were scored this year at G-Day, which would alone predict between a 10 win season, the Black team has won again.  Things are different this year, though.  While in the past, the Red team has almost always been the first team offense, this year the teams were drafted and randomized, so the winner doesn't really matter as much.  So far, this has been a great spring for the Dawgs, with no real bad news and a "Dream Team" recruiting class.  So maybe things will turn out different in 2011.  The good news is, this entire trend is hopefully ridiculous and only worth discussion for fun.  

I'll just hope that the 2011 Bulldog squad won't worry about any trends or records from the past, put last year's catastrophic results behind them, and look toward an SEC Championship (and perhaps more) in the fall.  

Georgia Football: What's the Level of Excitement?

It usually seems like the first day of spring football practice is big news.  This year, the coverage appears to be lacking, and so does the interest.  Granted, usually the basketball team isn't actually in contention for the NCAA tournament, and there is a 2 week hiatus between the first practice and the next.  But is it possible that there's a lower excitement level in general toward Georgia football at the moment?  Did a 6-7 season bring a feeling of cautiousness, perhaps even nervousness, about the coming year in Georgia football?

I started thinking about the type of season that produces the most excitement from a college football fan base, and that would have to be a nearly undefeated season, with a win in a BCS bowl, and returning stars.  In other words, 2008 was the optimal year for excitement in UGA football.  They were coming off an 11-2 season, a blowout win in the Sugar Bowl, and returning huge names in Stafford and Moreno.  Add to that the recruiting hype of a player like AJ Green, a #1 pre-season ranking, and the cover of Sports Illustrated, and you have about the maximum excitement level attainable.

A down year can bring excitement too: the excitement for change, improvements, and (obviously) doing better than the year before.  I got that feeling after 2009's 8-5 year, which was followed by a QB battle in the spring and the implementation of a new defense.  It wasn't the excitement of going into 2008, but it was still decent.  But is there a point where the losses become too many, and it's difficult for fans to feel the usual self-induced hype of a coming season?

We might have reached that point.  There's still anticipation, a growing star at quarterback, new recruits, and plenty of improving to do.  But the general feeling for now might be a cautious optimism.  Great things can happen in 2011, but we'll have to wait and see.

Should UGA Hold Open Tryouts?

Of course it isn't necessary.  Georgia has no problem filling up the roster with highly rated athletes and hand picked walk-ons to fill any gaps.

But Vanderbilt is in a different situation, and they've decided to now make possible the dreams of most college-aged sports fans.  They held a football walk-on tryout on February 15, and 17 students showed up to see if they have what it takes.  

I know it makes no sense at a program like UGA, but imagine how awesome it would be for the 30,000 or so students (minus about 60% females) to have a chance to wear the silver britches.  Even if none of them made the cut, it would still make a great reality show.  Make it happen, Mr. McGarity, and I will produce the reality show for free.  Title ideas?

Here are a few:
The Next Top Dawg
Mark Richt's: "The Arena"
Georgia Football Idol (with judges Mark Richt, Greg McGarity, and Mike "Big Dawg" Woods)

PS: Follow me on Twitter, because it's all the rage these days (or so I hear).

Does UGA have to win the East next year to keep Richt?

The AJC's Mark Bradley seems to think so. 

I seem to think he's wrong.

There are plenty possibilities for how the 2011 season could end up, but I can think of a few scenarios that wouldn't involve Georgia winning the SEC East, yet Mark Richt still easily staying as head coach.  So here's a list of some possible outcomes and my predicted results.

GEORGIA 2011 SEASON
1. Georgia goes 14-0 (8-0 SEC).  Obviously, this is what we sort of want here.  Mark Richt could buy himself as long as he wants in Athens with a national championship.

2. Georgia loses 1 game (13-1) Of course if UGA wins the SEC, it would buy Richt a lot more time (years).  But even if Georgia doesn't win the championship game (but gets there) Richt will no longer be on the "hot seat."

3. Georgia loses 1 game (12-1) This would require Georgia's 1 loss to somehow prevent it from winning the SEC East.  Only way this could happen is if Florida, South Carolina, or another East team beats Georgia and goes undefeated, winning the East.  This is extremely unlikely, but it could happen, and it's one scenario where Georgia not winning the East will certainly NOT get Richt kicked out of Athens.

4. Georgia loses 2 games (10-2 regular season).  Once again, even if Georgia doesn't make it to the SEC Championship but only has 2 losses, Richt should be fine.  A 10 win season, no matter how you slice it, can't be bad enough to oust a coach.  Any coach.

5. Georgia loses 3 games (9-3 regular season).  This is where things start to get tricky.  Georgia could win the East with 3 losses, in which case Richt would be fine.  But if not, I still think 9-3 should be enough for Richt, but the only way it could be really, really bad is if Georgia has:
A. 3 losses to rivals (Florida, Tech, Tennessee/Auburn) and gets blown out in these games
B. An embarrassing loss to a cupcake (Coastal Carolina, New Mexico State)

If those things happen, his future could be questionable.

6. Georgia loses 4 games (8-4 regular season).  This is pretty much the tipping point.  With 4 losses, Georgia COULD win the SEC East and go to the championship game, where a win would be a huge success for Richt at UGA (even with 4 losses).  However, if Georgia wins the East but loses the SEC with 4 losses, things could still look bad for Richt.  8-4 with no SEC East title probably won't cut it, and it could be the end of the Richt era, UNLESS things go a very specific way:
A. Georgia beats Florida, but loses very close games to good teams in 2011.  I think it's possible that this could save Richt for another year, but it's very unlikely.

7. Georgia loses 5+ games (7-5, 6-6, and below).  Richt will not be safe with any record with 5+ losses, UNLESS Georgia miraculously wins the SEC with that record (which still is technically possible).


So there you have it.  There are plenty of scenarios where UGA could not win the SEC East but still have a good season.  I think it would be hard to get rid of Coach Richt if he brings a 3+ win improvement from this year (9 wins or more).

A Quick Opinion on the Auburn Game

I'm not going to get into anything about a grinning Cam Newton looking coked out while blowing kisses to our defense, or Chizik and Trooper Taylor thumping their chests on the sideline and screaming while up 20 points, or of course the blatant assaults by Fairley on Murray (I may get to those later), but I will give a quick opinion on this game.

I love having Mark Richt as a head coach, but I feel the blame needs to be put on him for this one.

Our other losses of the season have been due to a compendium of reasons.

1. Turnovers at the worst possible times (Ealey fumbling at the end zone against South Carolina, Ealey fumbling in the end zone against Miss. State, King fumbling as we were about to kick a game-winning field goal at Colorado, and Murray's fumble/interceptions against Florida).

2. Offensive play calling (mostly apparent early in the season in the South Carolina and Arkansas games, as we refused to open the playbook for Murray, no shotgun passes, only play-action).

3. General poor play (the defense in general, the turnovers by the RBs, Murray's first half against Florida)

But most of those cases I wouldn't necessarily blame on the head coach.

We know that turnovers were a HUGE focus of our team in the off season.  The coaches stressed that many times when we did interviews in the spring.  I don't see any reason to believe they were lying, and ignored this huge problem.  But in football, sometimes you turn the ball over no matter how much you practice against it.

The defensive play may be cause for concern, but the numbers tell a more optimistic story.  Georgia has improved in nearly every defensive statistical category from 2009.  But there's no doubt that the defense was shredded throughout most of the second half in last night's game.

And offensive play calling, which is the head coach's responsibility, really has seemed to greatly improve over the season to this point.  Our offense looked aggressive and dangerous against Auburn, and against every team since the Colorado game.  Part of that may be due to AJ Green's return, but what the national media hasn't noticed are the changes in play calling.

But I honestly think last night's loss didn't have much to do with why we lost our other 5 games this season.  The offense looked great and we didn't turn the ball over once.  The defense looked very poor, but no one expected them to stop Auburn's offense.

This is why I put the blame on Coach Richt for this one.

Running out the Clock at the Half

Everyone in the media was talking about this game being a shoot out, a back and forth, high scoring affair where the team who had the ball the most times would win.  And from the beginning, it definitely looked like that would be the case.

Georgia got up to a 21-7 lead, and our offense stalled on the next 2 drives.  But it was OK, because Auburn's had been stifled by our defense as well.  But when Auburn tied the game at 21, we needed to keep our momentum going and score to keep the lead in the shootout.

But Coach Richt did what, unfortunately we all knew he would do, and with 1 timeout, a minute on the clock, and the ball in our offense's hands, we decided to run out the clock and go to half.

His thinking was obvious: we deferred to the 2nd half, and we didn't want to make any mistakes in our own territory.  It's a classic conservative approach, and usually, not a terrible decision.

But this, like I mentioned, was a SHOOTOUT, a game where we knew we needed to keep scoring to win.  In games like that, you don't take ANY possession for granted, including 2nd half kickoffs.  That's exactly what we did.  We ran the clock, went to the half, and Auburn's onside kick to start the 3rd quarter was them placing the nail in the coffin.

They scored on that possession and took away the shootout momentum, forcing us to come from behind.

We took the possession for granted and wasted it away.  Essentially, that possession to end the half and the onside kick at the start of the 3rd were like 2 turnovers for Georgia.  A loss of 2 possessions in a shootout will pretty much guarantee you a loss.

Kicking a Field Goal

And the second decision that the head coach is responsible for was to go for a field goal late in the game rather than the touchdown.

I can't complain as much about this one, because many more people will tell you to take the points when you can get them.  But once again, in a shootout game, you can't settle for field goals, especially when behind.  We KNEW that our defense couldn't stop Auburn.  Our best chance was to hope for some turnovers or maybe we could execute an onside kick or 2 to get back in it.

With the field goal, we were down 4, and then soon down 11 as Auburn scored a TD.  That put us down two touchdowns to catch up.

With a touchdown, we would have been tied, and then down 7 when Auburn scored their TD.

If we had tried for a touchdown and failed, we would have been down 14.  Still two touchdowns, so the same as if we had gotten the field goal.

I know it isn't quite that simple, but we were playing at that point to catch up to Auburn and make the shootout even again.  Field goals just simply wouldn't get it done, especially when we knew that Auburn would keep scoring.

Kicking that field goal completed the loss, and that was when Georgia did Auburn a favor by driving that nail into the coffin.

The Beard Prohibition Has Ended!

Although it's slightly old news by now, I just saw today's AJC article about how facial hair is now allowed on the football team, as long as they continue to win the turnover battle.

Funny to see this article now, since it's been a year and a half since I posted a blogpost on here about Coach Richt banning facial hair in spring 2009.

According to the article, apparently the beard allowance was the same last year (but secretive), because the team had almost the worst turnover ratio in the country, so the men remained boys.  Maybe the manliness and strength that only a beard can portray is needed on this team to finish out the season strong.  

Oh, and Aaron Murray's quote in the article does sound pretty bad, but you know he was just joking.  Tim Tucker could have thrown in "Murray said, smiling" or something like that for the kid, but instead left him to be berated for his understandable desire to receive good gifts from mommy on his birthday.

Biggest Win For Dawgs (Point-wise) Since...

Just looking at some past scores from Georgia's schedule over the years, and found some interesting stats that I haven't seen anyone mention.

UGA's win over Tennessee today (41-14) by 27 points was their biggest win over any SEC team (or any Big Six Conference team at all) since the 2007 win by 28 over Ole Miss (W 45-17).

Even more interesting fact: Georgia hasn't beaten Tennessee that badly since 2003, when the Dawgs beat the Vols in Knoxville by... 27.  The score?  41 to 14.

Dawgs Win?.... Really?

And a good win indeed.  I don't care how much Tennessee sucks, but any day Georgia beats Tennessee, it's a very good day.  Also, need I remind you that LSU needed a miracle to beat this UT, and Florida and soon to be #2 Oregon struggled early with the Vols?  Yeah, well Georgia went up 17-0 pretty quickly, and didn't look back.

This Georgia team has the ability, and that's what's been infuriating about this season.  I strongly believe that play-calling and very unfortunate fumbles were responsible for the 4 game losing streak Georgia endured.  Otherwise this could be a very different looking season.  

I realize many Dawg fans out there have been so ticked off that they will cautiously celebrate this win, but still will proclaim that this team "sucks" or will be lucky to win any more games.  But I have to disagree.  We know this team should perform better.  And today's game was finally a performance that Georgia fans deserved.  

And honestly, I still think Georgia could win the rest of the games on this schedule (and Auburn is looking more and more like the biggest roadblock to that achievement).  But we can only get there if we do more of what we did today, and even better.  No more game-changing fumbles, and more smart play calling.  Smart play-calling is usually this: do what works best.

The Offensive Line Problem: Partially Explained?

One more quick note about yesterday's post.  

I've seen plenty of fans, and the Georgia coaches as well, lamenting the failures of our experienced offensive line.  No, the blocking hasn't been great, but it should be noted that the offensive play-calling mentioned before could be partially to blame.  

I wrote yesterday about how Georgia attempted 10 play-action passes in the 1st half, to the point where everyone, EVERYONE (including the Arkansas defense) knew what we were about to do.  This led to 5 sacks on Murray.  

Turns out I understated the ridiculous amount of play-action plays that were called.  I showed that there were 12 total in the game, but I didn't count the 5 sacks and the few times that Murray ran after a play-action fake.  So there was more like 20 (maybe a couple more) play-action plays called in that game, and at least 13 in the first half.  13.

I'm no expert, but it's got to be more difficult to block on a play where the defense knows exactly what you're doing.  

Once again, this doesn't excuse poor execution, but it does make me wonder how the O-line would hold up with a better variety of plays being called.

What Went Wrong? In-Depth Offensive Analysis

Before we get started into the next work-week, I figured I'd quickly take a look at yesterday's offensive gameplan and see, specifically, why it was so unfortunately bad.  

Buck Belue insisted today that it was "ignorant" to blame Mike Bobo's play calls for Georgia's last-minute loss to Arkansas, and that Bobo "mixed it up" and was aggressive.  Well, I'm going to have to disagree with Buck there, and I do wonder if he really got to watch most of the game while doing the Braves Pre-Game show.  

I sacrificed my Sunday afternoon to fast-forward through the DVR recording of the game and check out every offensive play, to see exactly what happened.  Those details are below.

But first I will mention this: Anyone who has ever played a football video game could have questioned the play calling in the 1st half of the game yesterday.  In the third quarter, I was dumbfounded as to why we were ONLY running play-action passes, and had almost ZERO plays out of the shotgun (something we even used frequently with an immobile Joe Cox at QB) or standard drop from center passes.  The play calls reeked of trying to be creative and "mix it up" without actually doing the most basic and simple things to actually accomplish that goal.  And guess what?  At some point in the late 3rd quarter, those changes finally started happening, and the Dawgs scored 17 points from then on out.

So what happened, exactly?

The First Drive:

Things started out well and with some pretty good variation.  The first drive featured a mix of 3 up-the-gut power rushing plays, 2 play-action passes, 2 Wild Dawg runs, and Murray's touchdown scamper.  The theme of this drive was that the running game worked so well, we could afford those 2 play-action passes, and it all worked to perfection.

The Second Drive:

Bobo decides to try the shotgun for maximum protection as Georgia is backed up by the end zone.  A shotgun handoff doesn't work, so then 2 shotgun passes in a row, and we're punting.  We were stuck in a bad spot and couldn't get out.  It happens.  

The Third Drive: 

The shotgun formation didn't work so well on the last drive, so we decide to do something a bit strange: 4 play-action passes in 6 plays.  A bit of play-action overload there, don't you think?  And what happens when the defense is starting to catch on to your continual PA attack?  Murray gets sacked on the last one.

From here we'll skip forward, because it's much of the same for a while.  Play-action passes and running plays that don't work too well.  Until the 3rd drive of  the 3rd quarter, when Bobo decides to bring the shotgun back, and Georgia manages a field goal.  

After that, the offense is ignited, the offensive plays are actually well-mixed, and two more touchdowns are scored.  

So as for that variation in the 1st half?

FIRST HALF STATS:

10 Play-action Passing Plays

3 Shotgun Formation Plays (2 were designed passes)

1 Standard, Under-Center Pass

Wayyyyy too many play-action passes.  Everyone knows that you need to run the ball well to make the play-action a viable option.  You've got to fake the defense into playing the run, and that way you buy time for protection and chuck it downfield.  But when the run isn't working so well and yet you keep running play-action passes?  You get sacked.

SACK STATS:

There were 6 sacks on Murray in the game.  FIVE of these were on play-action passes.  ONE was from shotgun formation, and that was that fateful 3rd and 4 that basically lost us the game.  We'll get to that in a minute.

The shotgun formation, on the other hand, keeps things in front of the quarterback.  They don't have to turn their back to the defense, and they have an extra few yards buffer between them and defenders.  For a rattled QB, it gives them much more vision of the field and an ability to make a better passing decision (and better ability to scramble and avoid a sack).  The shotgun is a favorite of offenses featuring mobile QBs, like young Aaron Murray. BUT WE ONLY SAW 2 SHOTGUN PASSES IN THE FIRST HALF.  Also notice the complete lack of normal, 3-5 step drop passes.  Only 3 in the entire game, 1 in the first half.

PASSING STATS:

Play-action Passes: 6/12 for 97 yards and 1 Interception

Shotgun passes: 7/12 for 143 yards and 1 Touchdown

Standard Drop Passes: 2/3 for 13 yards

Georgia didn't start it's comeback until the shotgun formation was put back into the game.  Bobo strangely abandoned it after one drive where it didn't work out, and didn't bring it back until almost too late.  

SCORING DRIVES:

1st: 2 PA passes

2nd: 3 PA, 2 shotgun, 1 standard

3rd: 1 PA, 3 shotgun, 1 standard

4th: 2 PA, 1 shotgun

And finally, for the play that defined the game.  It was 3rd and 4, and Georgia needed only about 20 more yards to kick a field goal and win the game.  We run a shotgun pass play, and Murray gets sacked, forcing us to punt.  The commentators mentioned that every receiver was running deep downfield, giving Murray no chance.  They were wrong, but not completely.

After re-watching the play, a few things become clear.  

1. Yes, Ealey missed a key block which led to the sack.  

2. Three receivers were, in fact, running deep down field.  In slow-motion, you can see that none of these guys had even looked back by the time Murray was getting hit.  He didn't even have a chance to pass to them.

3. One receiver from the slot (Marlon Brown, I think) did run a short route and crossed in the middle, but he was well covered and had only just looked back when Murray was sacked.

Any way you slice it, it was a bad play call.  With over a minute left and 2 timeouts, Georgia had the luxury of trying for a first down there.  We didn't need the homerun ball.  But the play-call seemed to want that.  Yes, the shotgun formation should have given Murray enough protection to make a play, and Ealey's mistake destroyed that.  But to only have ONE short route on such a crucial play is asking for disaster.  And that's what we got.  

So there you have it.  

I'm not going to say that the play-calling was the only thing that lost us the game.  The defense, while playing great for most of the time, didn't cut it at key moments.  And of course the offensive players didn't always execute, and as noted, Murray did hold on to the ball too long in some situations.  

But player error is to be expected.  They will make mistakes in every game.  But coaches are supposed to be the consistent, stable part of the equation that you can count on to hold things together.  And the offensive coaching was atrocious.  

I'm not calling for anyone to be fired.  But I hope that they see they same things I (and many others) did, and that they will now plan to make adjustments and NOT make the same mistakes again.  Because if the play-calls and coaching in the 4th quarter had been figured out by the 1st instead, Georgia would have won that game handily.  Hopefully they will figure that out, and good things can still happen this season.  


Tomorrow I'll bring some optimism back here.