Aug 27, 2009

Which Teams are Over/Under Rated?

I don't know. But I can take a guess.

I made a post back in May about how an "unbiased" preseason poll might look for college football. Basically, I took the final AP and Coaches' Poll rankings from last season, then used the number of starters returning for each team to determine where they should be ranked objectively. Obviously, this formula isn't perfect at all, because there's a lot more to football than experienced players returning. Also, I didn't take into account how important the players departing were to their teams, if that's even possible to calculate.

Admittedly, I knew that the non-BCS teams were ranked much higher than they would actually be in the "real" preseason polls. Still, these polls didn't look too bad.

But just for fun, I want to look at how these "unbiased polls" compare to the "real polls" that have been recently released. You can check out the "real polls" here at ESPN.com. I'll start with the teams at the top of both polls. Teams that are ranked the same (or within 1 or 2 spots) in the "unbiased" and "real" polls will be labeled "same." Teams ranked lower (worse) in the "real polls" will be labeled "underrated" while teams ranked higher (better) will be labeled "overrated." The "unbiased" rank will be listed in parentheses.

"Real" AP Poll:

1. Florida: Same (1)
2. Texas: Same (2)
3. Oklahoma: Same (4)
4. USC: Same (5)
5. Alabama: Same (6)
6. Ohio State: Same (7)
7. Virginia Tech: Overrated (12)
8. Mississippi: Same (9)
9. Oklahoma State: Overrated (15)
10. Penn State: Same (10)
11. LSU: Overrated (NR)
12. California: Overrated (24)
13. Georgia: Same (11)
14. Boise State: Same (14)
15. Georgia Tech: Overrated (19)
16. Oregon: Underrated (13)
17. TCU: Underrated (8)
18. Florida State: Same (20)
19. Utah: Underrated (3)
20. Brigham Young: Overrated (NR)
21. North Carolina: Overrated (NR)
22. Iowa: Underrated (18)
23. Notre Dame: Overrated (NR)
24. Nebraska: Overrated (NR)
25. Kansas: Overrated (NR)

"Real" USA Today Coaches' Poll

1. Florida: Same (1)
2. Texas: Same (2)
3. Oklahoma: Same (4)
4. USC: Same (3)
5. Alabama: Same (6)
6. Ohio State: Overrated (10)
7. Virginia Tech: Overrated (11)
8. Penn State: Same (9)
9. LSU: Overrated (NR)
10. Mississippi: Same (12)
11. Oklahoma State: Overrated (16)
12. California: Overrated (25)
13. Georgia: Underrated (8)
14. Oregon: Same (13)
15. Georgia Tech: Overrated (19)
16. Boise State: Same (15)
17. TCU: Underrated (7)
18. Utah: Underrated (5)
19. Florida State: Overrated (23)
20. North Carolina: Overrated (NR)
21. Iowa: Underrated (18)
22. Nebraska: Overrated (NR)
23. Notre Dame: Overrated (NR)
24. Brigham Young: Same (22)
25. Oregon State: Underrated (21)

So to sum it up, looking at this theoretical "unbiased poll" compared to the actual preseason polls, this is what we get:

Slightly overrated: Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, California, Georgia Tech, Florida State.

Very overrated (teams ranked in "real" and not ranked in "unbiased"): LSU, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Kansas (although Kansas is a close one)

Slightly underrated: Oregon, TCU, Utah, Georgia, Iowa

Very underrated (teams that were ranked in "unbiased" but not in "real"): Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Missouri, Pittsburgh.

What surprises me is the amount of teams that were ranked exactly the same between the "real" polls and the "unbiased" polls. But still, there are teams that aren't ranked at all that very easily could be, and others that are ranked high that many could argue shouldn't be ranked at all. So are the voters right, or are they letting their bias get in the way?


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