Will the SEC East be a mess this year? (See: 2007)

In 2007, the SEC, like the rest of college football that year, was a complete mess.  There were no teams in the entire conference with less than 2 conference losses.  Georgia and Tennessee stood atop the East, each with 2 SEC losses, but the Volunteers would represent in the SEC Championship based on multiple close escapes late in the season.

The SEC East in 2011 looks like it could be just as much of a mess with no champion decided until perhaps the very end of the season.

Yes, Georgia already lost to East favorite South Carolina, but if you take a look at the schedules, the race isn't going to be over anytime soon.

South Carolina has likely wins against Vanderbilt and Kentucky at home, but I see them losing at least 2 out of Auburn, at Miss. State, at Tennessee, at Arkansas, and versus Florida. 


Florida has to play Alabama and at LSU, not to mention at Auburn and the rest of the SEC East.  Once again, it seems likely they would have at least 2 SEC losses as well.

Tennessee is about to go play in the Swamp this weekend, and they have an even tougher West schedule than Florida.  They play LSU at home and at Alabama, plus at Arkansas.

And of course Kentucky and Vanderbilt remain Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

Of course it's still possible that South Carolina, Florida, or Tennessee could be way better than they seem and could burn through their tough SEC schedules and remain undefeated in conference, but I wouldn't bet on it.  Georgia, meanwhile, has the easiest SEC schedule of them all, with games at Ole Miss, against Miss. State, and the annual rivalry game with Auburn.

Don't be surprised if the SEC East ends up similar to 2007, with each team having at least 2 conference losses, and maybe even with a tiebreaker determining once again which team will play in Atlanta for the conference championship.

Quick Look Back at SEC's Bad Calls in 2009

First, ESPN's Chris Low had a blog update yesterday remembering the bad officiating calls in the SEC last season. (Also note that Low mentions "Georgia receiver Julio Jones")

Then, watch this great YouTube video which shows those controversial calls and even refers to the NCAA football rule book to show why they were so bad.

Thanks to RC123au for the video. Interesting (yet painful) stuff to watch.

The SEC Picture (with losses) and Spring Practice Video

First of all, I've had the pleasure of doing some videos for the award-winning David Hale's Bulldogs Blog, and up today is a video of yesterday's first spring practice. Check it out along with the vast quantities of great info and analysis that you're used to from his blog.

Second, I realized that it might be worth it to look at the whole SEC picture using the percentage statistics I've been posting about. So first, here's a look at the SEC East, ranked from who loses the least to who loses the most (based on losing starting quarterbacks and percentage of rushing yards/scoring, receiving yards/scoring, tackles, sacks and interceptions).

SEC East

1. South Carolina

2. Vanderbilt

3. Kentucky

4. Georgia

5. Tennessee

6. Florida

SEC West

1. Arkansas

2. Mississippi State

3. Auburn

4. Alabama

5. LSU

6. Ole Miss

Overall SEC

1. South Carolina

2. Vanderbilt

3. Kentucky

4. Arkansas

5. Georgia

6. Mississippi State

7. Tennessee

8. Auburn

9. Alabama

10. LSU

11. Florida

12. Ole Miss

Then, keep in mind that four SEC teams have never won their division in the conference: Kentucky, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. Imagining that there's a glass ceiling in the SEC for these four unfortunate teams leads us to form this list:

1. Arkansas

2. Georgia

3. Miss. State

4. Tennessee

5. Auburn

6. Alabama

7. LSU

8. Florida

Of course, this is only looking purely at what these teams are losing from 2009-2010, and differences in coaching and talent at each school will also play an enormous part in who finishes where. But judging by the numbers, Georgia looks to be in a great spot going into the 2010 season.

More Percentage Stats: The SEC East in 2010

Production percentage losses in the SEC East for 2010 (listed from least losses to most):

1. South Carolina

Passing: Return QB

Rushing: 6.7% yards, 0% scoring

Receiving: 17% yards, 16.7% scoring

Tackles: 25.4%

Sacks: 46%

INT: 33.3%

2. Vanderbilt

Passing: Return QB

Rushing: 10.3% yards, 0% scoring

Receiving: 7.4% yards, 0% scoring

Tackles: 37.3%

Sacks: 52.5%

INT: 41.7%

3. Kentucky

Passing: Return QB

Rushing: 16.4% yards, 15.4% scoring

Receiving: 8.8% yards, 23% scoring

Tackles: 42.3%

Sacks: 36.6%

INT: 68.7%

4. Georgia

Passing: Lose 1-year starting QB

Rushing: 0%

Receiving: 9% of yards, 20% of scoring

Tackles: 47%

Sacks: 46%

INT: 40%

5. Tennessee

Passing: 95.2% yards, 96.4% scoring (losing 2-year starting QB)

Rushing: 65.8% yards, 68.4% scoring

Receiving: 21.8% yards, 14.3% scoring

Tackles: 43.3%

Sacks: 47.5%

INT: 50%

6. Florida

Passing: Lose 3-year starting QB (and Greatest of All Time)

Rushing: 33% of total yards, 46% of scoring

Receiving: 73% of yards, 64% of scoring

Tackles: 48%

Sacks: 68%

INT: 60%

My first thoughts after putting this data together:

1. It really is true that 2010 will be South Carolina's best chance to win the East.

2. Kentucky might actually be in position to finish second or third in the East.

3. Vandy returns a lot, but for them, that's a bad thing.

4. Georgia was hit pretty hard on defense, but overall, things don't look too bad.

5. Florida and Tennessee lost a TON. If Georgia is going to beat both of these teams in the same year, this might be the year to do it. Sure, new freshmen and recruits could be very good, but it's not easy to throw a bunch of new talent on the field and expect to win the division.

6. How crazy would it be if the SEC East standings end up looking like this list? On one hand, it would be very, very funny. On the other, it would be very, very sad.

Good for Georgia: Player losses in SEC 2010

I find it a bit silly that so many publications come out with their "very early preseason polls" before we even know which players are leaving early for the NFL draft. Well, now we know, so it would now be an appropriate time for such polls. I started taking a look at the returning starters for the usual-ranked teams for 2010, starting with the SEC. But the thing that caught my eye is just how much each SEC team is losing.

Perhaps most interesting is that Alabama and Florida, the two "dominant" SEC teams from last season, are losing a LOT of important players. First, let's take a look at Florida, who we've heard frequently now will be just fine replacing Tebow with Brantley, as if that was their only loss.

Florida is losing their starters in the following positions:

QB: Tebow

WR: Nelson and Cooper

TE: Hernandez

C: Maurkice Pouncey

DE: Cunningham and Dunlap

LB: Stamper, Spikes, and Doe

CB: Haden

S: Wright

KR/PR: James

That's 5 offensive starters, one of which is obviously the most important. But also, Hernandez and Cooper were pretty much the only targets of Tebow in 2009. There's also 7 defensive starters (7!) including all 3 starting linebackers. Oh, and also their reliable kick/punt returner, Brandon James. Florida could still be good next year, and they clearly have some of the best recruits to fill in for their past stars, but can new players perform to the level of those who are departing? I think Georgia fans tried to argue that we'd be fine replacing Stafford and Moreno, because we had such good recruits. That didn't turn out so well.

Then we have Alabama, known primarily for their hard-hitting defense. Their offense loses little, only Peek (their TE), and 2 guys on their O-line. But their defense?

- They lose both starting defensive ends (Washington, Dederick)

- They lose their star nose tackle (Cody)

- They lose 3 of their 4 starting LB's (McClain, Reamer, Anders)

- They lose a starting CB and PR/KR (Arenas) as well as a safety (Woodall)

Not to mention they also lose their kicker (Tiffin) and punter (Fitzgerald). That's only 3 offensive starters leaving, but 8 defensive starters, as well as 2 special teams players.

But most importantly for Georgia is the losses in the SEC East.

-Tennessee loses even more than Florida and Alabama. They lose their starting QB (Crompton), RB (Hardesty), WR (Hancock), and 3 starters on the offensive line. On defense they lose 2 lineman, 1 linebacker, and their star safety (Berry).

-Kentucky, although not a traditional challenge for Georgia in the east, did surprise us this year when we fell apart in the 2nd half. Luckily, Kentucky is getting hit pretty hard by losses as well. They lose their starting fullback, tight end, 4 offensive linemen, one defensive tackle, one linebacker, one cornerback, one safety, and their kicker.

-And Vanderbilt may be fortunate to lose a LOT of players, considering their terrible season last year. They lose their starting: QB, WR, OT, OG, C, 2 DEs, DT, LB, CB, 2 safeties, and punter.

-South Carolina loses relatively less than other teams, and this is why some (crazies) are trying to argue that USC of the east could win the SEC East in 2010. They lose a starting wide receiver and center on offense, plus a defensive tackle and safety on defense, and their star linebacker Norwood. Some have pointed out, though, that maybe it's bad for South Carolina to keep so many players. After all, this will be almost the same team that got embarrassed by Connecticut in the PapaJohn's.com Bowl.

As for West teams:

-Auburn is only losing 7 starters, but they're important. They lose Chris Todd, their starting QB, and Ben Tate, their star running back. They also lose their starting TE, OT, DE, DT, and cornerback McFadden.

-LSU loses 10 starters, but once again, some are very important. Their biggest offensive loss will be running back Charles Scott (not to mention both of his backups at the position as well). They also lose two of their best receivers, LaFell and the tight end Dickson, an OT, OG, DE, DT, 2 linebackers, and a safety.

-Ole Miss should drop off the map completely, losing a shocking 14 total starters on offense, defense, and special teams. They lose their QB Snead and star receiver/runner Dexter McCluster. They're losing 8 starters on offense, 5 on defense, plus their kicker and punter.

-Miss. State loses 8 starters, including their starting quarterback, running back, and a top receiver.

-Arkansas is already getting hyped as a possible candidate for 2010 SEC West champion, largely due to the fact that they only lose 5 starters. They do lose Michael Smith, their top running back, and a starting OG, DE, DT, LB, and S.

As far as non-conference opponents for Georgia, most worrisome would be Colorado and Georgia Tech. Colorado only loses 5 starters, but hopefully that's a good thing as they weren't very impressive in 2009. Georgia Tech loses 7 starters, but they're all BIG losses. They lose star back Dwyer, star receiver Thomas, star defensive end Morgan, and star safety Burnett, not to mention a starting OG, OT, and LB.

Finally, Georgia's returning player situation looks like this:

-On offense, we lose only one starting player, Joe Cox at QB (unless you count Michael Moore as a starting wide receiver).

-Defense is where we're hit hard, losing our defensive tackles Owens and Atkins, star linebacker Curran, cornerback Miller and safeties Jones and Evans. But considering defense was our main problem in 2009, it might not be too bad to get some new players out there along with our new coaches and 3-4 scheme.

Overall, 2010 is seemingly shaping up to be a great opportunity for Georgia. Florida and Tennessee, our biggest threats to take the East, are the hardest hit by losses. Of our west opponents, Auburn loses most of their big players, which should help us, but Arkansas returns most of their squad from last year. Finally, Tech loses 4 huge players. Now if we can just fix that defense, let's see what UGA can do in 2010.