Atoning for Past Predictions from 2009

Only minutes away from the 2009 college football kickoff, I decided to hastily post a list of my predictions for the season. Unfortunately, they didn't end up being very good, but there were a few good calls.

Let's start with the really bad ones.

1. Georgia will not lose more than 2 regular season games in 2009.

-Well, they did. They lost five. My original feeling as the season approached was that UGA would likely lose their opener at Oklahoma State, and then lose an SEC game later. I was right on that account, but I didn't expect Georgia would lose three other SEC games (and I doubt many did). To be fair, Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU were all strange losses, weren't they?

2. Florida, on the other hand, will lose at least 2 regular season games.

-They didn't. In fact, they didn't lose a single game until the SEC Championship. I thought for sure they would slip up after a disgustingly magical 2008 season, and they almost did to teams like Arkansas and Mississippi State. They even struggled with LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina. But those Tebow-led Gators would just not lose. Until they met the Crimson Tide.

3. Georgia Tech will lose 4 regular season games.

-I really thought that the ACC would be much improved from 2008, and Tech's miracle-run to nine wins would fall to at most eight, but the ACC was a mess again. Virginia Tech, Miami, FSU and Clemson were all good teams for parts of 2009, and three of those were close to knocking off the Jackets, while Miami pounded them into their poorly maintained turf. Even Wake Forest sent GT into overtime in Atlanta. Once again, they somehow survived. But they did lose two regular season games, and a third in the Orange Bowl, so I wouldn't say this prediction was all that bad...

4. Only 2 teams from the AP preseason top-10 would appear in BCS games.

-Well, I was wrong on this one, but not terribly wrong. Four teams from the preseason AP top-10 ended up in the BCS (Florida, Alabama, Texas, Ohio State).

5. Colt McCoy will win the Heisman, thanks to ESPN's help, but most fans will be upset that a non-Quarterback candidate that emerges during the season doesn't win.

-I honestly thought that this would happen, but Mark Ingram and Toby Gerhart flew up the Heisman watch lists and finished ahead of McCoy in the voting.

6. No non-BCS "big-six" conference teams will bust the BCS, or play in BCS games.

-I was very, very wrong. Boise State and TCU finished the regular season undefeated and played in a BCS bowl game... against each other.

And now for my relatively accurate predictions:

1. Kentucky will surprise in the SEC East, finishing either 3rd or 4th in the East standings.

-They did. They finished 4th behind Florida, Georgia and Tennessee. They also surprised in another way: by beating Georgia at home.

2. Likewise, Auburn will surprise in the West and perhaps even be a contender for the SEC West title.

-The West was a mess, with no teams being flat-out terrible (such as Vandy in the East). Auburn didn't have a great season by any means, but they probably did surprise many by turning around their 5-7 record from 2008, ending 8-5 with a win in the Outback Bowl against Northwestern. It would certainly be a stretch to call them a "contender" for the SEC West title in 2008 because Alabama was far-and-away the best of the West, but Auburn was as much of a contender as the other five teams in the division.

3. Tennessee will upset one BIG team. (hopefully not Georgia)

-This one is difficult. I really felt like the Vols had a chance to upset Florida in what would be a catastrophic event in college football, and while they did keep the game close, they lost. The biggest "upset" that Tennessee technically won was against then #22 South Carolina. But since we all considered Tennessee beating Georgia as a big upset in 2009, I'll consider my prediction accurate.

4. USC will not win the Pac-10. It will be either Cal or Oregon.

-This wasn't the boldest prediction maybe, but it was accurate. Believe it or not, but USC was ranked #4 preseason in 2009 after losing their starting quarterback and plenty of other talent. They were also largely picked as the favorite to win the Pac-10, largely because they almost always are. I had a feeling that the Trojans were overrated by the rankings and expectations, and that did prove to be the case, as they lost four games and finished fifth in the Pac-10. Oregon did, in fact, win the conference. (I didn't, however, really expect Arizona or Stanford to do so well in conference.)

This season, I'm going to do things differently. I'm trying to base my predictions almost completely on stats and objective information about each team and conference. We'll see how that goes.