Feb 16, 2010

What's Georgia Losing in 2010?

I'm working on all of the data/calculations for a new "unbiased preseason poll" formula using CFBstats.com, and I've found some interesting numbers along the way.

In the transition from the 2009 Georgia squad to 2010, with graduating seniors and early exits to the NFL, Georgia loses:

Passing: Starting QB (roughly 100% of passing totals)
Rushing: Lose 0%
Receiving: 9.5% of total receiving yards, 20.8% of receiving touchdowns (all from Michael Moore)
Tackles: 47%
Sacks: 46%
Interceptions: 40%

The good news is they retain 100% of rushing yards and scoring, since there were no seniors last year that ran the ball (unless you count Joe Cox's -28 yards on the season).

At first glance, those numbers seem pretty bad, especially on defense, but then you take a look at some of the competition.

For example, the Florida Gators:

Passing: Lose 3-year starting QB
Rushing: Lose 33% total yards, 46% of scoring (mostly Tebow)
Receiving: Lose 73% of yards, 64% of scoring
Tackles: 48%
Sacks: 68%
Interceptions: 60%

Or Alabama:

Passing: Lose 0%
Rushing: Lose 9.9% of yards, 6.4% of scoring (Roy Upchurch)
Receiving: 11% of yards, 17% scoring
Tackles: 62%
Sacks: 64%
Interceptions: 62%

I haven't finished running the numbers on every top 25 team yet, but I think Florida might be the hardest hit by total percentages of offensive/defensive production lost, while Alabama is seeing huge losses on defense.

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