Dec 7, 2009

Bad bowl projections or crazy season?

I'm back, thanks to an idea for a quick post. Look back at the preseason bowl predictions from ESPN's experts for 2009. Man, these guys were off (and I'm guessing most everyone was as well).

Only 4 teams that either guy predicted to be in a BCS bowl actually ended up there. Florida, Texas, Boise State, and Ohio State. That's 50%, so... not too bad? But look at who else was projected to be in BCS bowls. Oklahoma, Ole Miss, BYU, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, South Florida, Penn State, and USC. A couple of those picks weren't too bad (Penn State, Pitt), but others were wayyy off. Of course we can give people a break for predicting great things from Oklahoma. No one knew Bradford would get hurt so quickly, but still. Ole Miss and USC were particularly bad picks, and vastly overrated preseason, while everyone overlooked Oregon and Cincinnati.

They both had Oklahoma State in the Cotton, but vs. Alabama? Wow. Alabama actually overachieved this year. And probably the worst projection: Neither guy had a 2nd SEC team in the BCS bowls. Whaaa?

And a sad note: They both had Georgia in the Capital One. Could have happened without a crazy ending to the LSU game and a complete implosion at the end of the Kentucky game, so maybe not too bad of a prediction.

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